Markets related to shipping disruptions reflect bleak short-term prospects. Polymarket estimates the probability that the movement through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by April 30 at just 11%, and by May 31 it will rise to 33%. The average daily vessel transit as of April 3 is estimated at 100% for the range 0–10. The probability that daily transit will exceed 20 ships by the end of April is 51%. On Kalshi, the question about the nuclear deal attracts the largest volume of bets. On four markets, traders have invested $3.16 million in outcomes related to the US-Iran nuclear deal. The probability of an agreement being reached by 2027 is 35% with an odds ratio of 2.73. The probability of reaching an agreement by August drops to 19% with an odds ratio of 4.98. Polymarket estimates the probability of a nuclear deal being reached by April 30 at just 3%.#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge