Participants in the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the war with Iran in 2026; the probability of U.S. invasion of Iran is currently estimated at 90%, with trading volume exceeding $115 million. Key takeaways: Polymarket traders have wagered $115 million on a U.S. invasion of Iran before December 31, estimating a 90% chance of this event. The Kalshi market dedicated to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amounts to $7.3 million, reflecting deep concern over a 7-day blockade. The probability that Mojtaba Khamenei will lead Iran by the end of 2026 is 64%, as indicated by markets assessing succession after the death of the Supreme Leader.