$4,545 gold, $72.99 silver rebound… ETF GLD, SLV, entering a phase of reduced volatility?

Global gold prices have experienced a slight rebound after a recent sharp decline. On the 24th local time, spot gold closed at $4,471.20 per ounce, and on the 25th, it is trading near $4,545. Compared to the over $5,000 level reached last week, the adjustment remains significant, which is interpreted as a partial recovery of short-term losses. Silver spot prices also rose from $71.255 on the 24th to $72.997 on the 25th, showing a rebound similar to gold.

Looking at recent intraday movements, both gold and silver prices dropped sharply after the 16th from their highs. After confirming lows on the 20th and 23rd, they began to turn upward from the 24th. Gold is a typical safe-haven asset used to hedge against inflation, financial instability, and geopolitical risks. Although silver is also a precious metal, its industrial demand makes it more sensitive to economic cycles. During this range, silver prices moved in the same direction as gold but with larger intraday fluctuations, reflecting their differing characteristics.

The representative gold ETF linked to gold—SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—fell from $460.43 on the 16th to $404.18 on the 24th. Similar to spot prices, it saw significant declines on the 18th and 19th, and from the 23rd to 24th, it sought stability around the $400 level. The silver ETF—iShares Silver Trust (SLV)—also dropped from $73.22 on the 16th to $62.98 on the 24th, with notable volatility on the 19th and 20th. Since ETF prices reflect not only physical prices but also short-term investor sentiment and market dynamics, recent adjustments can be seen as reflecting cautious market sentiment across the gold and silver markets.

This is set against the backdrop of expanding central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization efforts centered around China and Russia. The People’s Bank of China and the Russian central bank have been steadily reducing their dollar holdings and increasing gold reserves over recent years, making market demand a key factor influencing gold prices. After the Ukraine war, Western sanctions froze Russian overseas assets, prompting Russia and China to bolster gold reserves and BRICS countries to seek to reduce reliance on the dollar, all supporting gold demand. U.S. sanctions, stablecoin regulation, tariffs, and other policies also intertwine with discussions on the dollar’s dominance, often cited as variables affecting the medium- and long-term environment of precious metals markets.

While spot and ETF prices generally move in sync, differences in their adjustment speeds are observed. Recently, during periods of high trading volume, both GLD and SLV saw significant declines in closing prices, but volatility decreased from the 23rd to the 24th, stabilizing within certain ranges. In the physical market, demand from central banks and long-term investors is gradually reflected, whereas ETF markets are more influenced by short-term trading and algorithmic strategies, often showing larger daily price swings.

Currently, gold and silver prices are in a short-term correction or consolidation phase after recent adjustments, with a complex environment where safe-haven and physical asset demands are intertwined. Gold, after surpassing $5,000 and reaching a historic high, is undergoing a correction; silver’s volatility remains amplified due to the interplay of industrial and investment demand. Investors are closely monitoring central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation variables, continuously adjusting their positions.

The ETF market also shows a mix of defensive posture and cautious waiting. During recent sharp declines, trading volume in GLD and SLV surged, and as prices attempted to stabilize, trading gradually normalized. This indicates some funds are quickly adjusting their safe-haven holdings amid volatile price swings, while at certain levels, strategies involve buying on dips or maintaining existing positions. Particularly in silver-related ETFs, expectations and concerns linked to industrial outlooks are reflected simultaneously, leading to relatively higher intraday volatility.

Both gold and silver are sensitive to changes in interest rates and exchange rates, especially the US dollar, and may experience increased short-term volatility driven by monetary policies of major countries, political developments, and geopolitical events. Under the combined influence of central bank gold purchases, sanctions, tariffs, wars, and macroeconomic factors, both spot and ETF prices could see heightened volatility, requiring market participants to remain vigilant.