Eurozone wage growth expectations stable, structural changes weaken domestic exchange rate and export correlation, domestic supply chain has advantages under crude oil shocks---0324 macro dehydration

SnapshotLaborer · 2026-03-24T17:29:52+00:00

Eurozone Q1 GDP growth expectations have been revised down due to manufacturing declines in Germany and Spain, along with weakening consumer confidence. The core impact of RMB appreciation on exports stems from orders and global demand; in the long term, changes in export structure mitigate exchange rate effects. Oil shocks have shifted toward testing supply chain resilience, with China holding advantages in securing raw material supplies and poised to capture global orders.

SnapshotLaborer

2026-03-24 17:29:52

Abstract generation in progress

Due to the decline in manufacturing sales in Germany and Spain, the Eurozone’s first-quarter GDP growth forecast has been downgraded. Some European countries, including the Netherlands and Belgium, saw a weakening in consumer confidence in March. The European Central Bank expects Eurozone wage growth to stabilize around 2.6% by the end of the year.
The appreciation of the Renminbi does not necessarily lead to weaker exports. In the short term, the core variables determining export trends are more about orders and global demand. In the long term, changes in export structure have weakened the correlation between exchange rates and exports, with high exchange rate-sensitive industries decreasing in weight and low exchange rate-sensitive industries increasing.
The oil shock has shifted from cost increases to testing the resilience of the global manufacturing supply chain. It is transitioning from a price shock to a supply shock. Compared to traditional manufacturing powerhouses like Japan, South Korea, and Germany, China has advantages in maintaining industrial raw material supplies and hedging capabilities, and is expected to take on a reallocation of global orders.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.