"Trump came up with a bunch of harsh negotiation conditions, but still doesn't know how to contact Iran's leaders"

Why is Iran’s decision-making ambiguity a key obstacle to negotiations?

【Text / Observer Network Qi Qian】

The US-Israel-Iran military conflict has entered its fourth week. According to Axios on March 21, the Trump administration is taking a two-pronged approach: preparing for the next phase of military action while planning possible US-Iran negotiations. Sources reveal that the US intends to propose six stringent demands to Iran, including no missile programs within five years, zero uranium enrichment, and signing arms control treaties.

However, multiple informed sources indicate that the US’s negotiation plans face obstacles, as Iran has previously made it clear that it refuses to negotiate. Another issue is that the US government currently cannot identify who the decision-makers in Iran are or how to contact them.

Trump stated this Friday that he is considering “gradually ending” the war. US officials familiar with the matter expect fighting to continue for another two to three weeks. During this period, Trump’s advisors hope to start paving the way for diplomacy. It is revealed that Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff have been involved in discussions about potential diplomacy and hope to prepare for negotiations soon.

Witkoff and Kushner (video screenshot)

According to the US officials and multiple sources, the US insists that any agreement must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, addressing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, and establishing long-term agreements on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for “regional proxies.”

Sources say there has been no direct contact between the US and Iran in recent days, but Egypt, Qatar, and the UK have relayed messages from both sides. Egypt and Qatar have informed the US and Israel that Iran is interested in negotiations, but their conditions are very strict. Iran’s demands include a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, and war reparations.

An American official states that the US believes “Iran’s development has been seriously weakened” and is confident that Iran will sit at the negotiation table. The official says the US expects Iran to make six commitments:

1. No missile programs within five years;
2. Zero uranium enrichment;
3. Dismantle nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow bombed last year by the US and Israel;
4. Implement strict external monitoring protocols on centrifuges and related equipment that could advance nuclear weapons plans;
5. Sign arms control treaties with regional countries, including limiting missiles to no more than 1,000;
6. No longer fund Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, or Hamas in Gaza as “proxies.”

However, reports indicate that Iran has repeatedly rejected some of these demands in the past and has expressed unwillingness to negotiate with a US president who might suddenly attack during negotiations. Iranian President Raisi, in a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi on the 21st, said that only when the US and Israel immediately cease their aggression and guarantee such aggression will not happen again can regional wars and conflicts end.

Regarding Trump, he recently said he is not opposed to negotiations. But reports suggest he is currently not interested in Iran’s ceasefire demands.

An American official states that Trump also considers Iran’s compensation demands “unacceptable.”

Another official suggests there might be room for negotiation regarding the return of frozen Iranian assets. The official said, “They call it compensation. We might call it the return of frozen funds. There are many ways to phrase it, which can address their political needs and build consensus within their system. It’s a matter of wording. We first need to reach a stage where we can effectively resolve the wording issues.”

Additionally, the report points out that Trump’s team is currently trying to answer two key questions: who is the best contact point for negotiations in Iran, and which country is the most suitable mediator.

US officials say that Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif has been the main intermediary in past negotiations, but Trump’s advisors see him as a “fax machine,” not someone with real authority to reach agreements. “They are trying to figure out who in Iran actually makes decisions and how to contact them.”

The official also said that although the last nuclear negotiations were mediated by Oman, the US is seeking a different mediator, preferably Qatar, because Qatar has proven to be an effective and credible mediator in Gaza.

However, two sources indicate that Qataris are willing to help behind the scenes but do not want to be the main official mediators.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.