Video | US Resorting to "Any Means Necessary" to Maintain Control of Strait of Hormuz, Iran May "Fight to the Death"

How will Iran’s fish-or-cut-bait warning affect the region?

Currently, the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has become a particularly troublesome issue for the United States, yet difficult to resolve. On the evening of the 21st, U.S. President Trump once again pressured Iran, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else launch strikes against “various power plants” in Iran and destroy them.

In an effort to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has begun threatening to strike Iranian power plants. Iran has warned it will retaliate against U.S. allies, so what is Iran’s goal?

The U.S. is willing to use any means to restore passage through the strait but still has concerns

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: When the U.S. threatens to strike Iranian power plants, it reflects its eagerness to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It has already used any means necessary, but still has many reservations. The U.S. has deployed military forces in the Middle East, with troops massed and threatening to launch ground operations. However, from the results so far, it has not succeeded in toppling the Iranian regime. The U.S. also cannot carry out escort missions, and American military operations are facing frequent issues. Meanwhile, the U.S. hopes to form a so-called “escort coalition,” directly targeting allies and partners, repeatedly calling for support, but responses remain limited.

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: Therefore, the U.S. now has to find alternative approaches. When threatening power plants, the primary target is Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The U.S. believes that if Iran experiences widespread power outages affecting civilians’ lives, it will put greater pressure on the current Iranian regime.

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: At the same time, the U.S. is considering avoiding further spikes in oil prices. Previously, Israel has launched multiple attacks on Iran’s energy facilities, including storage facilities in Tehran and the largest gas field in the south. The U.S. has repeatedly prevented such attacks to avoid driving oil prices higher, which could backfire and cause bigger problems for itself.

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: Additionally, the U.S. has targeted power plants, with the U.S. President emphasizing the largest power plant, even without a clear target. Multiple analyses suggest it likely refers to the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Regarding Bushehr, it’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time the nuclear plant has been threatened. On March 17, Iran reported an attack on the plant, with the attack site only 200 meters from the reactor, posing significant risks. The International Atomic Energy Agency is also monitoring the situation. If a nuclear accident occurs, the consequences would be enormous.

Iran’s fish-or-cut-bait warning increases spillover risks of conflict

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: At this point, we see that Iran is warning of the serious risks caused by U.S. military strikes, and Iran itself is also threatening that it might go all out. Iran has repeatedly emphasized that it does not want to become the target of all sides. Even if the U.S. and Israel initiate attacks, Iran has said it will retaliate against regional targets, but stresses that this is because the U.S. and Israel are the first to strike and are expanding their actions.

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: Now, Iran emphasizes that if it is pushed into a corner, the first impact will likely be a further rise in oil prices, which would be an “unbearable burden” for the U.S. When Iran targets energy facilities in other regional countries, it will inevitably push oil prices higher, triggering a series of subsequent reactions.

Special Commentator Su Xiaohui: Moreover, Iran’s threats serve as a reminder to regional countries that as the U.S. and Israel further expand military actions and Iran is forced to fight back, this will also mean huge losses for regional countries. They hope to influence the subsequent actions of the U.S. and Israel, preventing them from expanding operations further and causing additional attacks and related damages to Iran.