Shanghai University of Finance and Economics President Liu Yuanchun: Technological Change and Supply-side Reform Are the Core Drivers of Consumer Transformation

Ask AI: How does technological change catalyze the emergence of new consumption patterns?

Text | Wang Ligang

Editor | Zhu Yuting

On March 22, the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference was held in Beijing, with the theme “China in the 14th Five-Year Plan: High-Quality Development and New Opportunities for Innovation.” During the “New Trends and Opportunities in Consumption Growth” seminar, Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, delivered a speech.

Liu Yuanchun stated that domestic research and attention to the consumption sector are currently very high. From last year to this year, over 340 reports related to consumption have been officially published, mainly from securities firms and government levels. The growth in the number of consumption reports is much more lively than the growth in consumption data, indicating that discussions around consumption issues have already sparked a hot debate.

Citing data, Liu Yuanchun said that last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and from January to February this year, it increased by 2.8% year-on-year. This growth rate is 1.9 percentage points higher than in December last year, which is a very good achievement.

Regarding key stages of consumption upgrading in history, Liu Yuanchun pointed out that, from the development process in China, over forty years of reform and opening up, the country has experienced three landmark consumption upgrades. The first began in 1983, marked by the abolition of cloth rationing, leading to a boom in light industry and textile apparel consumption; the second started in 1995, centered around home appliances, driving the rise of the electronics and machinery industry; the third occurred in the early 21st century, relying on internet proliferation and WTO accession, shifting consumption toward education, healthcare, and information services.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the “Statistical Bulletin of the People’s Republic of China on National Economic and Social Development 2025,” which shows that by 2025, China’s per capita GDP will reach 99,665 yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. Converted at the annual average exchange rate, this amounts to $13,953, surpassing $13,000 for three consecutive years. The steady rise in per capita GDP benefits from technological innovation, the accelerated construction of a modern industrial system, and the vigorous development of new productive forces.

From international experience, Liu Yuanchun noted that in the United States, when per capita GDP reached $13,000–$14,000 in 1981, it marked a key year for service consumption upgrading. At that time, American household consumption expenditure accounted for 66.5%, far higher than China’s current level, with service consumption significantly leading. During the same period, the fastest-growing consumption sectors in the U.S. were healthcare, computer and data processing services, dining out, financial insurance and wealth management, and entertainment industries. An important story here is the healthcare reform in the U.S. during the 1980s, which boosted both commercial and private service systems through public service improvements.

Liu Yuanchun believes that the core logic of consumption development involves three points: first, residents’ income levels are the most fundamental factor for consumption growth; second, releasing consumption potential is a key focus; third, technological and supply-side reforms are the main driving forces behind consumption transformation.