Industry predicts 1-2 rate cuts for the full year, diversified finance surges in response; China Oil Capital surges to daily limit

On March 19, the multi-asset financial sector experienced a short-term rally, with CPC Capital (000617.SZ) hitting the daily limit-up, while COFCO Capital (002423.SZ), RuiDa Futures (002961.SZ), Hongye Futures (001236.SZ), Aijian Group (600643.SH), and Jiangsu Financial Leasing (600901.SH) also rose.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist and FICC Chief Analyst Ming Ming stated during the CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum that China’s real GDP growth rate in 2026 may remain around 4.9%, with the annual growth possibly showing a “V” shape. Rising inflation will help drive a rapid rebound in nominal GDP, and the GDP deflator is expected to shift from negative to positive. In 2026, fiscal policy will be moderately expansionary, with a deficit ratio maintained at 4%. There is room for flexible and efficient use of monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts; it is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates 1-2 times and RRR once throughout the year, with structural tools playing a greater role. Equity assets are relatively attractive amid the recovery and rising inflation. Short-term government bond yields are likely to fluctuate around 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate modestly in a weak dollar environment.

This year’s government work report on monetary policy continues the tone of recent key meetings, especially the December 2025 Central Financial Work Conference. In 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. According to the government work report, promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rise in prices are important considerations for this year’s monetary policy. The central bank will flexibly and efficiently use tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate reductions.