He Xun Investment Advisor Xu Xinyuan: Whether the Low Point Can Become a True Bottom Still Needs Technical Confirmation

March 24, Hexun Investment Advisor Xu Xinyuan said, “Is everyone being tossed around enough by the market? But on the other hand, this gives us a breathing space. Today, the market stabilized, and market sentiment also eased. What everyone cares about most right now is whether yesterday’s low point is truly the bottom. I know many people still have lingering fears, worried that the situation might worsen. At this point, discussing whether to avoid risks is already missing the best opportunity. It’s better to change our mindset and consider whether our current positions should be adjusted.”

Let’s look at some data. Currently, the proportion of stocks trading above the 30-day moving average in the entire market has dropped to 9.9% as of yesterday. Over the past few years, whenever this indicator fell below 10%, it signaled a key stage bottom—such as in April 2025, January 2025, and January 2024—all of which were major buying points. From a technical standpoint, the market has met the conditions for a bottom. However, honestly, without the resolution of geopolitical crises, it’s hard to say the market has truly bottomed out. The situation remains unpredictable, and clarity will take time. Moving forward, the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, and this process can help investors gradually desensitize to news, which is another essential condition for a true bottom.

Additionally, whether the low point can become a genuine bottom still requires technical confirmation. Although the confirmation process has not yet been completed, we can prepare in advance. First, prepare ammunition—holding a full position and stubbornly holding on is the most passive approach. Even if the bottom is reached, your holdings might already be significantly devalued. During the emotional recovery, it’s wise to reserve some funds so that when the bottom is confirmed, you can take the initiative. Second, prepare different sectors—during the bottom phase, individual stocks won’t perform uniformly. You can see which sectors are strong and which are weak before the bottom. The sectors with capital backing won’t easily disintegrate, and logical certainty makes them more worth paying attention to. Currently, the market has formed two major pre-positioning main battlegrounds: energy and AI. Regardless of how the situation evolves, these two themes will remain firm, and related sectors will continue to have opportunities to perform.

(Editor: Cui Chen HX015)

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