Guotai Junan Futures: Foreign Ore Disruptions + Rising Costs, Alumina Breaks Above Previous Highs

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-24T15:22:13+00:00

Guinea is controlling bauxite supply in response to price declines, while geopolitical conflicts and rising raw material prices are impacting alumina costs. Alumina inventory continues to increase, market sentiment remains strong, and futures contract prices are rising, but risks of supply oversupply must be guarded against, and investment caution is advised.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-24 15:22:13

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Guotai Junan Futures Market Analyst

Chen Junhao

Investment Consulting License: Z0021546

Main Drivers:

Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, is discussing with mining companies to control the supply of ore to protect the country from price declines. On one hand, they aim to regulate bauxite production to prevent falling prices, avoiding reductions in corporate revenue and government taxes; on the other hand, they hope more bauxite can be processed domestically into alumina.
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a significant increase in global energy and transportation costs. Additionally, rising prices of raw materials like caustic soda have pushed up alumina costs.
The fundamental supply-demand balance remains loose. Capacity utilization rates are generally stable. As of March 13, the total operational capacity for alumina nationwide was 92.9 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons week-over-week; inventories continue to accumulate. According to Aladdin, as of last Thursday, national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, up 36,000 tons week-over-week.

Market Movements: As of today’s close, the main alumina futures contract briefly exceeded 3,100 yuan/ton, closing at 3,074 yuan/ton, up over 3%. The market showed increased volume and upward momentum, breaking previous highs, with MACD and price not diverging. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuation of the rebound and support near previous high levels.

Risk Warning: Recently, alumina has been boosted by sentiment, supply factors, and costs, showing a volatile but relatively strong trend. However, oversupply and high inventory levels have not yet significantly changed. Investors should monitor supply-side changes, watch rebound heights, and exercise caution when chasing highs.

Source: Wind Information, Steel Union, Aladdin, Jintou Futures, Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute

Completion Time: 2026.3.17 16:00

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