Date: March 24, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: Iran's military latest statement claims to have taken the initiative in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, and has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz.
· Impact: The core energy route is under actual control → the market shifts from "anticipated blockade" to "actual control," leading to re-pricing of oil prices and shipping risks.
· Focus: Whether the actual crude oil transit volume recovers or continues to be restricted.

2)
· Event: The United States announces "productive talks" with Iran and delays the planned military strike by 5 days.
· Impact: Short-term easing signals are released → global stock markets rebound, and oil prices fall sharply.
· Focus: Whether an agreement is truly reached after 5 days or if the stance shifts back to hardline.

3)
· Event: International oil prices plummet in a single day, with WTI falling over 10% and Brent over 10%.
· Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums rapidly unwind → energy stocks come under pressure, while risk assets (such as technology stocks) rebound.
· Focus: Whether oil prices stabilize around $90 or continue to decline.

4)
· Event: The three major U.S. stock indices rally across the board (all up over 1%), and Chinese concept stocks generally rise.
· Impact: Market risk appetite recovers → short-term capital flows shift from safe-haven assets back into growth assets.
· Focus: Whether the rebound is sustainable or driven by sentiment.

5)
· Event: Iran denies having engaged in formal negotiations with the U.S., claiming that related reports are "market manipulation."
· Impact: Information inconsistency → market volatility intensifies, and sentiment is prone to reversal.
· Focus: Whether both sides issue consistent statements or formal negotiation declarations.

6)
· Event: Reports indicate that thousands of U.S. Marine forces are being deployed to the Middle East, preparing to enter the conflict zone.
· Impact: The pattern of "negotiating while fighting" becomes clear → expectations of de-escalation coexist with risks of escalation, increasing volatility.
· Focus: Whether this translates into actual military action rather than mere deterrent deployment.

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: The U.S. signals potential future involvement in the control and management arrangement of the Strait of Hormuz.
· Impact: The global energy corridor may enter an "era of joint management by major powers" → reshaping shipping and energy pricing mechanisms.
· Focus: Whether a multilateral coalition or a U.S.-dominated control system is established.

8)
· Event: Iran emphasizes its capability to lead Gulf security through regional cooperation, rejecting external forces' intervention.
· Impact: Regional bloc confrontations intensify → long-term uncertainty over global energy supply security.
· Focus: Which side Gulf countries align with and whether a regional alliance forms.

9)
· Event: The market begins to exhibit a trading logic where "geopolitical conflicts can be managed through policy windows" (initial escalation followed by de-escalation).
· Impact: Asset prices become more sensitive to "political statements" → volatility becomes normalized.
· Focus: Whether a fixed pattern of escalation—de-escalation—re-escalation emerges.

10)
· Event: Analysts point out that the core variable has shifted from "war itself" to the transmission of energy prices to inflation and interest rate paths.
· Impact: The chain from oil prices to inflation to interest rates now dominates global asset pricing → long-term pressure on growth stocks and an advantage for resource assets.
· Focus: Whether the midpoint of oil prices and major central bank policies undergo synchronized changes.