[Red Packet] Predicting a Three-Day Rebound Window! Why is it viewed as a rebound? Is live trading more important or post-trade analysis?

Hello everyone, I am Xiaoxin. My trading system can be summarized with words like “timing, main trend, leading stocks, low frequency,” which is the Long Kong Long model. [Taogu Ba]
Follow me, and let’s catch the leading stocks together. If I don’t comment on a leading stock in the market, just unfollow! Since last Wednesday, Huadian Liaoning Energy has been gaining strength with each review!

1. Leading Stock Practical Trading Analysis
Pre-market thinking review: (Since the screenshot cannot include individual stocks, only mosaics are used)

Major trend judgment:
Once again, a perfect prediction. The recap post yesterday already indicated that yesterday was a market disaster-level bottom, and normally we should see a rebound. The Middle East conflict eased, external markets surged, so today naturally leans bullish. A three-day rebound window is expected, with positions taken today and the move out by Thursday, considering weekend uncertainties and the fact that funds tend to cash out on Friday. Of course, there’s also a chance to jump early on Thursday, especially since today’s rebound was quite strong—watch daily.

Trading aspects:
Meili Yun: Bought on small red in last Friday’s small volume, today surged strongly, sold out without waiting for a breakout. There was dirty money involved; every straight rally gets hammered. Plus, there was an expectation of a rebound, but before 10 am, it was hammered into a green plate, which was annoying. It then gave a good rally, so I sold quickly. Better to avoid the risk of recent sharp drops and take some profit.

Trading logic sharing:
Last Friday, I was optimistic about the market’s bottom recovery, believing that mysterious funds would hold the half-line. At 9:47 am, after the index dipped into the red, Meili Yun’s support was very strong, showing contrarian support. From a short-term perspective, if last Friday’s market recovery holds, the 2nd and 3rd tiers will be very important. That day, besides Shenhua Development and Huadian Liaoning Energy in the 4th and 5th tiers, the 2nd and 3rd tiers were key, forming a flexible attack/defense position. Meili Yun’s divergence and turnover route indicate active funds.
However, since the market didn’t fully recover from the bottom that day, Meili Yun failed to advance and was dragged into the red, a failed gamble. I think stock selection wasn’t a big issue; the main mistake was the market’s overall direction prediction. These past two days, it has mostly withstood the market’s plunge, and today, with the market’s recovery, it gave a good rally—feeling satisfied.

GCL System Integration: Bought some near the close at flat price.

Trading logic:
In the past two days, the market plunged, but GCL System Integration was a contrarian crowd favorite. Today’s market showed signs of recovery, with a three-day window expected, so I paid attention to early positions, hoping to arbitrage tomorrow.

2. Seeking the Dragon Trilogy
(1) From the emotional cycle analysis:
Since March 13, the market has entered a retreat phase (mentioned in the recap post that day). The past two days, it accelerated to the bottom. Today, the market showed a decent recovery, with over 5,000 stocks in the two markets in the red. But even so, it’s just an oversold rebound; after such a big drop, a rebound is natural. Overall, sentiment remains in a retreat phase, with the theme cycle still focused on electricity. Expect a more intense decline day, accompanied by a major retreat in the electricity theme. Today, although the market rose broadly, only 6 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating speculative sentiment hasn’t truly revived.
(2) From theme speculation analysis:
Electricity remains the market’s absolute main theme, with over ten stocks hitting the limit-up. This surprised me. I initially thought Liaoning Energy and Henan Energy, seen as weak-market crowd favorites, would disintegrate today as the market broadly rose. The opening price also hinted at this. The index opened high, but Liaoning Energy opened flat, which was unexpected. When the index declined at open, Liaoning Energy was still supported by the crowd. Later, Hunan Development and Shao Energy shares helped, turning electricity into the emotional outlet for market recovery today.
(3) From individual stock analysis:
Huadian Liaoning Energy had a volume divergence last Friday, and yesterday, it showed weak volume but strong support, opening high and accelerating to hit the board, showing the traits of a major leader.
Henan Energy Holding: At the top of the trading range, funds are betting on a double top before the JG exit.

3. Leading Stock Comments

1. Huadian Liaoning Energy: After last Wednesday’s review, it continued to advance. Refer to the March 18 recap post for detailed leading stock comments.
   It’s a bottoming dragon, a power sector rebound leader, with potential to grow into a major leader.
   Since the first board on March 6, it has shown a strong trend. On March 13, it completed a deep water shakeout during the power sector divergence. On March 16, the power sector continued divergence, but Huadian Liaoning Energy topped the previous high with a straight line, forming a “one-word pass to the Tianshan,” a characteristic of a leading stock’s chip structure (similar to Yueneng Holdings before becoming a leader). It hit the first limit-up at open during the third attempt, driving a recovery in the power sector and establishing its position as a rebound leader! Last Friday, it first showed volume divergence, and today, with weak volume but strong support at open, it accelerated to advance, passing the volume divergence test and showing the aura of a major leader! Despite recent market crashes, Huadian Liaoning Energy defied the trend with multiple boards, becoming a core of weak-market support! Today, it faced a move to 7 boards, resonating with market recovery, boosting the power sector’s strong rebound. Its small size and low price already give it a major leader’s style. Tomorrow, it will challenge JG!
   Trading: Although it has all conditions to grow into a major leader, it still retains the “Henan Energy Holdings rebound” positioning, so there’s a risk of double top with Henan Energy. After two days of acceleration, it faces JG pressure tomorrow. If betting, wait for full turnover and buy low; avoid chasing acceleration!
2. Henan Energy Holdings: The power sector’s overall leader, currently at a toping stage. Funds are betting on a double top before the JG exit, meaning the closer to the previous high, the greater the desire for profit-taking.
   Trading: Not far from the previous high, the double top will complete soon, and JG will likely be out. Only a selling point, no buying point.

4. Tomorrow’s Observation Focus

1. Will Huadian Liaoning Energy face JG directly, or will acceleration cause both it and Henan Energy to top out simultaneously?
2. Observe whether the market’s recovery continues, and if the index will attack 3900 points.
3. The climax of the power sector today—will it be a graduation photo or a resonance of the bottom? Watch tomorrow’s feedback.

5. Market Risk Reminder
Don’t blindly be bearish because of declines, nor blindly bullish because of rises. Today was just an oversold rebound. Yesterday’s large gap down left a big gap, which will be a strong resistance in the coming days! If the gap is too large, it’s hard to expect a quick fill. The lower edge of the gap is at 3906 points, so 3900 will be the rebound’s “38 line.” Above 3900, reduce positions.
Looking further, this round of index adjustment may reach around 3731 points, near the annual moving average and the ten-year top point.

6. Insight Sharing (from Linghu Chong’s “Market Sense Training and Board-Playing Techniques”)
Q: Is watching the market more important than reviewing?
A: Watching the market trains your emotional control, your ability to manage greed and fear—this is the superstructure. Reviewing tests your diligence, your familiarity with the market, and your overall market perception—this is the foundation. Both are important. When you watch the market, many stocks rally but you don’t know what to trade, which shows inadequate review and lack of fundamentals. No matter how good the superstructure is, it’s useless without the foundation. Training market sense is the result of both watching and reviewing working together, and both are indispensable.
Interpretation: Reviewing is to find trading targets, understand market conditions, and better plan the next day’s trades. Watching is to wait for buy/sell points and execute the trading plan from review. Like football matches and training—if a player only plays matches and never trains, he can’t become a top professional athlete. Market trading is the official match; review is the regular training. In a sense, review is more important than watching.

That’s all for today! Thanks everyone for your recognition and support!
Thanks to @Brave Brother Lei, @Midnight Dream Red Card Tower, @Donghu A Gan, @Dongcang2022 and others for their tips!
If you have questions, feel free to discuss in the comments!
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