Barbecue is soldered into the DNA of Northeast China people - it's no exaggeration! This report proves it.

Why is the number of stores decreasing despite the growth of the AI barbecue market?

Beijing News (Reporter Wang Ping) The “Barbecue Industry Development Report 2026” was officially released at the 2026 China Catering Industry Festival, which opened on March 24. The report shows that in 2025, the national barbecue market size reached 268 billion yuan, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for about 5% of the total catering market. It is expected that the barbecue market size will surpass 280 billion yuan in 2026. The Eastern China region has the highest proportion of barbecue stores, while the Northeast region has the densest concentration of barbecue outlets.

Data from the report indicate that in the barbecue sector, the market sizes of skewers and grilled meat are approximately 158 billion yuan and 110 billion yuan, respectively, with a ratio of about 6:4. Liu Yiyi, Partner and CMO of Red Restaurant, explained that due to intensified competition in the catering market, the number of barbecue stores nationwide has shown a trend of rising first and then declining from 2023 to 2026. As of February 2026, the total number of barbecue stores nationwide dropped to 409,000, a 20.9 percentage point decrease compared to September 2024. However, competition in the barbecue sector remains fierce. Moving forward, driven by regional barbecue trends, the capacity of the sector is expected to expand further. The Red Restaurant Industry Research Institute estimates that the barbecue market size will exceed 280 billion yuan in 2026.

In terms of store distribution, Eastern China has the highest proportion of barbecue stores, accounting for 27.1%. Followed by Southwest China, South China, and Northeast China, with store proportions of 18.6%, 13.8%, and 13.0%, respectively. However, in terms of store density, the Northeast region has the densest concentration, with an average of 5.46 barbecue stores per 10,000 people.

In recent years, the chainization rate of barbecue categories has shown steady growth. According to Meituan data, the chainization rate of barbecue in 2024 reached 22%, an increase of 8 percentage points since 2021. Compared to hotpot, snacks, and fast food sectors, the chainization rate of barbecue remains relatively low, leaving significant room for future growth. The Red Restaurant Industry Research Institute predicts that the chainization rate of barbecue will reach 26% by 2026.

Regarding the distribution of stores among chain brands, as of February 2026, nearly 80% of barbecue brands have 10 or fewer stores, with 53.4% of brands having 5 or fewer stores. Only 1% of brands have more than 100 stores, indicating a low market concentration among barbecue brands. Data from Red Restaurant show that, as of February 2026, the top ten barbecue brands by store count account for only 1.02% of the total stores in the sector.

Liu Yiyi stated that for chain barbecue brands, whether exploring new flavors or upgrading classic products, there are multiple challenges. “On one hand, flavor trends in the catering market change rapidly, and the iteration cycle of taste preferences is shortening. Brands often face issues like delayed information and slow decision-making when capturing trends, analyzing demand, and advancing R&D, resulting in market enthusiasm fading by the time new products are launched. On the other hand, product innovation involves high trial-and-error costs. If new flavors do not meet consumer expectations, the R&D, production, and marketing costs invested early on will be lost, which restricts brands’ willingness to innovate.”

Editor: Wang Lin

Proofreader: Mu Xiangtong