Iran issues a statement! The Strait of Hormuz is shrouded in tense clouds—how significant will the impact be?

Breaking News from the Middle East!

According to CCTV News, on February 28 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform “Real Social” claiming that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has died. Trump also stated that ongoing strikes against Iran will continue for a week or even longer.

Iran has denied Khamenei’s death. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baharvand said on the evening of February 28 that both Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi are “safe and sound.” Additionally, late at night on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting reported that a source close to the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader stated that Khamenei is “steadfastly and calmly directing the battlefield situation.”

Furthermore, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on the evening of February 28 that no ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge. However, according to CCTV News, citing the UK Maritime Trade Operations, the Strait of Hormuz remains open for now, but caution is advised when passing through.

Trump Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Has Died

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media “Real Social” on February 28 that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has died.

Trump stated that Khamenei “cannot escape our highly sophisticated intelligence and tracking systems,” and with close cooperation with Israel, he and other leaders who died with him are powerless to resist.

Trump said that the continuous strikes against Iran will last for a week or even longer. Additionally, the White House announced the suspension of all travel and photography activities, meaning President Trump would not have any face-to-face interactions with reporters that day.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke that evening, saying increasing signs indicate Khamenei “is no longer among the living.” Israeli media later quoted senior officials claiming that Khamenei “has already died.”

However, Iran denied Khamenei’s death. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baharvand stated on the evening of February 28 that both Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi are “safe and sound,” in interviews with U.S. CBS and UK Sky News.

Additionally, late at night on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting cited a source close to Khamenei’s office saying that Khamenei is “steadfastly and calmly directing the battlefield situation.”

Moreover, at 1 a.m. local time on March 1, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement regarding “Operation Real Commitment 4.” The statement reported that during the fifth wave of military operations, a U.S. ammunition transport warship at Jebel Ali Port in the UAE was attacked by four drones, losing power and exploding.

In addition, a U.S. Navy base in Kuwait was attacked by four ballistic missiles and twelve drones, destroying all infrastructure and causing numerous U.S. military casualties.

Furthermore, an MST-class combat support ship transporting fuel in the Indian Ocean was targeted by Iranian missiles.

The IRGC also announced that the Saudi Sultan Prince Air Force Base was precisely attacked by Iranian missiles and drones.

The IRGC further stated that the Harir military base in Iraq, which houses U.S. special forces and assault troops, was attacked by missiles.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Announces Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

According to Xinhua News Agency citing Saudi Arabian TV on February 28, Iran’s IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The IRGC announced that no ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz that evening. Tass news agency reported that with the halt of oil tankers and other ships passing through, the strait has effectively been closed.

The report also said that the IRGC has issued warnings to multiple ships, stating that due to U.S. and Israeli military aggression and Iran’s response, the area around the Strait of Hormuz is risky, and passage is currently unsafe.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Oman Gulf and is a vital route for oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE. About one-fifth of global oil transportation passes through this strait.

As of February 28, according to real-time data from international oil tanker monitoring systems, vessel speeds in the waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping has come to a halt.

Meanwhile, several European governments have issued urgent orders to their flagged oil tankers en route, strictly prohibiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid escalating security risks.

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is a focal point for investors. Analysts believe that if Iran blocks the strait, crude oil prices could surge to $95–$110 per barrel. If the conflict remains short-lived and controllable, safe-haven trades and price spikes may be temporary.

In the most extreme scenario, if Iran attacks other Gulf countries’ oil facilities and disrupts the region’s daily supply of about 18 million barrels of crude oil, global oil prices could soar to over $130 per barrel.

Iran’s daily production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global output, making it the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. However, due to its strategic location, Iran’s influence on global energy supplies far exceeds this.

Located on the side of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran controls about one-fifth of the world’s oil transportation, including oil from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Iran warned on February 1 that if attacked by the U.S., it would trigger a “regional war.” Iran claims it has the capacity to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg notes this would be an unprecedented extreme measure for Iran, but it remains a nightmare scenario for global markets.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for most of the Persian Gulf’s crude oil, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined fuels exports. As one of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporters, Qatar also relies on this strait. Vessel tracking data shows that after recent attacks, at least three LNG carriers traveling to Qatar have suspended operations.

While OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the capacity to reroute some shipments via pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, closing the strait would still cause significant disruptions and push oil prices higher. However, some analysts believe Iran is unlikely to keep the strait closed long-term and may instead opt for harassment tactics that cause less impact on shipping.

(Source: Securities Times)