Geopolitical Power Play Simulation

This is a “super black swan” capable of triggering a tsunami in the global capital markets. When geopolitical missiles are launched, the logic of financial markets instantly shifts from “pursuit of growth” to “survival and risk aversion.” [Taogu Ba]

1. Macroeconomic Scenario: The Triple Shock of International Situations
   This time, the action is far from a small-scale friction; its epicenter is in the Middle East, but the shockwave will quickly sweep across the globe:
   “Fear Index” skyrockets, global liquidity undergoes a major upheaval: war signifies extreme uncertainty. The first response of global capital is “risk aversion and withdrawal.” Wall Street funds will疯狂地 withdraw from high-risk stocks (especially high-valuation tech stocks), flowing into safe-haven assets (USD, U.S. Treasuries, physical gold).
   Holding the “main arteries” of the global economy hostage, control over oil pricing is under attack: Iran is not only a major oil producer but also the gatekeeper of the Strait of Hormuz (the world’s most critical oil chokepoint). If war spreads, the global oil supply chain faces the risk of disruption. Oil prices will instantly be injected with a high “war premium.”
   The inflation ghost revives, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is thoroughly disrupted: If oil and shipping prices surge due to war, the inflation that the US and Europe have struggled to suppress will “reignite.” This will lead to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates longer, and the global monetary environment will remain under high pressure.

2. A-Share Market Map: Underlying Logic of Four Core Sectors
   As war ignites, the overall market is likely to come under pressure (due to outflows of foreign and risk-averse funds), but within the 25 trillion yuan A-share market, funds will not sit idly. They will疯狂涌入以下四大**“war-benefit/risk-avoidance logic”** sectors:
   Camp 1: 【Absolute Safe-Haven Barrier】— Precious Metals/Gold Sector
   Underlying logic: “A cannon fires, gold is worth ten thousand taels.” This is a financial memory embedded in human DNA for thousands of years. No matter how chaotic the world, physical gold remains the ultimate credit. When geopolitical risks surge, institutional funds will buy gold assets at all costs. Domestic upstream resource sectors with gold mining rights and large gold reserves will directly resonate violently with international gold prices. The ultimate reservoir of risk aversion sentiment. When war erupts, paper currency credit is damaged, and gold is the only hard currency.
   Heavy hitters: Zijin Mining (601899) / China Gold (600489)
   Structural logic: Zijin Mining is a multinational mining giant, and China Gold is a core domestic gold mining asset. When international gold prices jump due to risk aversion, their underground mineral reserves will be instantly revalued by the market. Large funds (insurance funds, public funds) can only buy such billion-level giants to hedge risk in the A-share market.
   Resilience pioneers: Laishen Tongling (603900) / Xiaocheng Technology (300139)
   Structural logic: Very small market cap. If gold prices surge over the weekend, on Monday, speculative funds are likely to use large orders to push these small-cap gold stocks to a “one-word limit-up,” acting as the market’s sentiment indicator.

Camp 2: 【Inflation and Black Gold】— Oil & Traditional Energy Sector
Underlying logic: Middle East conflicts are about “oil and gas pricing power.” The market will immediately anticipate reduced crude oil supply and soaring oil prices. In A-shares, exploration and extraction companies at the top of the industry chain, with oil fields and gas wells at home, that directly sell crude oil and natural gas, will see their profit expectations instantly surge with oil prices. This is the most direct realization of “war premium.”
Iran is a core oil-producing region and the gatekeeper of the chokepoint. If oil supply is threatened, oil prices will be injected with a high “war premium.”
Heavy hitters: China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938)
Structural logic: The most pure upstream oil exploration giant in A-shares. Unlike refining companies (whose profits are squeezed when oil prices are too high), CNOOC directly sells crude oil. Every dollar increase in oil price directly thickens its net profit. It is an absolute safe haven for fighting inflation and speculating on soaring oil prices.
Resilience pioneers: Zhunyou Shares (002207) / Beiken Energy (002828)
Structural logic: These are pure small-cap oil & gas service stocks. During previous international oil price surges or Middle East conflicts, A-share speculative funds first ignited these stocks. Low market cap, just the right sentiment, easily leading to continuous limit-up or “stair-step” stock rallies.

Camp 3: 【High Profits from Chokepoint Blockades】— Cross-border Shipping & Oil Transportation Sector
Underlying logic: This is a “hidden corner” that retail investors often overlook but speculative funds love to hype. When the Red Sea and Middle East waters become war zones, global merchant ships and oil tankers are forced to reroute (e.g., around the Cape of Good Hope).
Mathematical logic: Rerouting = significantly increased sailing distance = doubled sailing time = global ship availability instantly becomes “extremely scarce” = maritime freight rates (shipping price index) skyrockets. Domestic companies with large ocean fleets will earn huge profits from soaring freight spreads.
If merchant ships avoid combat zones and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, global shipping capacity will instantly become short, and freight rates will soar exponentially.
Heavy hitters: COSCO Shipping (601872) / China COSCO Shipping Corporation (600026)
Structural logic: As Middle East tensions escalate, the first beneficiaries are VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers). COSCO Shipping and China COSCO Shipping hold top-tier global oil tanker fleets. Crude oil transportation will see longer routes, higher insurance, and freight costs, allowing these companies to directly enjoy the super dividends of freight rate surges.
Resilience pioneers: Ningbo Ocean Shipping (601022) / Jinjian Shipping (601083)
Structural logic: Although their main businesses may not all be in the Middle East, once the “shipping price increase” logic takes hold, funds will spread horizontally to speculate on these lighter shipping stocks, using limit-ups to vent emotions.

Camp 4: 【Great Power Moat】— Defense & Military Industry Sector
Underlying logic: War is the most intense wake-up call for “security anxiety.” The actual combat in the Middle East will once again prove to the world that without a strong independent national defense, all economic prosperity is a castle in the air. This worsening international situation will directly boost market expectations for accelerated domestic military orders and unexpected growth in defense budgets, especially in core equipment fields like missiles, drones, and electronic warfare, validated in modern warfare.
Realistic exercises of modern warfare will greatly stimulate domestic efforts to accelerate the deployment of advanced weapons and equipment.
Heavy hitters: AVIC Shenyang (600760) / Aero Engine Corporation of China (600893)
Structural logic: One is a leading fighter aircraft manufacturer, the other is the only listed company specializing in aero engines. The Middle East airstrikes and missile defense will reaffirm the core importance of gaining air superiority. Institutional investors will prioritize these irreplaceable “great power heavy equipment” in military industry allocations.
Resilience pioneers: Fushun Special Steel (600399) / Chenxi Aerospace (300581)
Structural logic: Modern warfare involves not just equipment but also underlying materials science. Fushun Special Steel, as a key supplier of aerospace, military, and nuclear-grade steels, will see significant performance elasticity as military orders accelerate. Companies like Chenxi Aerospace, favored by speculative funds, are high-elasticity military industry targets on the Growth Enterprise Market (with 20% daily limit-up/down).