Middle East Tensions Escalate: Gold and Oil May Rise Together, Resources Could Become This Year's "Sharpest Spear"

CryptoTimes Financial APP has learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation directly impacts global risk appetite. In the short term, the market may present a typical safe-haven pattern of “gold and oil rising together, risk assets under pressure.” How the Middle East situation will develop next week could become a key observation window. Regarding the future trend of resource commodities, the longstanding view remains: resource commodities have catalysts all year round, but a bull market does not rely on catalysts and may become the sharpest “spear” among major asset classes this year. Short-term geopolitical easing and liquidity changes (such as phased replenishment of April TGA accounts and potential slowdown of RMP plans) could be turning points.

Main points from Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:

With the US and Israel jointly launching airstrikes on Iran, the already complex and contradictory Middle East situation has officially entered a “hot phase.” In fact, this military strike was not too surprising to the market, as disagreements over core issues such as nuclear programs and sanctions relief have already been deeply rooted, making it impossible to reach substantive consensus or bridge differences.

Currently, many targets within Iran have been attacked, including the presidential palace and the intelligence and national security departments. Israel has even threatened to overthrow the Iranian regime; meanwhile, Iran has launched its first round of missile retaliation, vowing to carry out “destructive” counterattacks and has entered a state of full alert. The situation is tense and on the brink of conflict.

Although the US and Iran previously held three rounds of indirect talks in Oman, Switzerland, and other locations, core disagreements remain unresolved: the US maintains a tough stance, explicitly refusing Iran’s retention of uranium enrichment activities, demanding commitments not to develop nuclear weapons, and attempting to link nuclear issues with missile development and regional proxy arms to pressure Iran; Iran, on the other hand, insists on sovereignty, proposing a “limited nuclear program + international supervision” compromise, but emphasizes that sanctions on energy exports and the financial system must be lifted first to ensure domestic economic stability. The two sides are at an impasse.

This attack occurred just as the third round of indirect US-Iran negotiations had just concluded, and both sides planned to hold technical discussions in Vienna on March 2. The sudden move by the US and Israel not only casts a shadow over the already difficult negotiations but also highlights the US strategy of “talking while confronting.”

For assets, the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation directly impacts global risk appetite. In the short term, the market may exhibit a typical safe-haven pattern of “gold and oil rising together, risk assets under pressure.” Historical market reactions to conflicts in the Middle East have repeatedly confirmed this pattern: gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, will attract large capital inflows, pushing prices steadily higher; regarding oil, as the Middle East is a major global oil producer, instability directly threatens global oil supply security. Coupled with concerns over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil prices may spike temporarily. In contrast, risk assets such as stocks and emerging market currencies may experience phased corrections due to heightened risk aversion.

How the Middle East situation will develop next week could become a key observation window. Based on the current US-Iran situation, there are three possible scenarios:

1. Baseline scenario (higher probability): Controlled retaliation and resumption of negotiations. Iran conducts proportional retaliation using existing equipment and proxy networks but deliberately controls the scale of conflict—avoiding blocking the Strait of Hormuz or attacking US core bases to prevent escalation. Under this scenario, both sides may restart negotiations through third-party channels, with oil prices initially spiking but then gradually returning to a reasonable range driven by fundamentals.

2. Full escalation scenario (potential risk): Regional chaos and energy crisis. If Iran follows through on its “destructive retaliation” threats, leading to full-scale conflict and possibly blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger chain reactions: oil and gold prices may continue to rise, global energy supply chains could be severely disrupted, financial market volatility would increase, and the global economic recovery could be severely impacted.

3. Rapid de-escalation scenario (lower probability): Major powers mediate and ease tensions. International organizations like the UN and major powers intervene strongly, using diplomatic pressure and interests coordination to push for a ceasefire between the US and Iran. The situation could quickly cool down. Market risk appetite would recover, asset prices would gradually normalize, oil and gold prices’ gains would narrow, and risk assets like stocks could rebound.

Risk warning: Significant changes in US trade policies; unexpected expansion of tariffs leading to a slowdown in the global economy and increased market adjustments; frequent geopolitical tensions causing increased volatility in global assets.