Global Highlights for Next Week: Middle East Conflict Developments, US Non-Farm Payroll Data, and Apple New Product Launch

Caixin March 1 News (Editor: Shi Zhengcheng) As fighting reignites between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on Saturday, missiles and drones flying across the Middle East are causing concern among global investors: aside from some Middle Eastern countries that operate on Sunday, nearly all major stock and futures exchanges worldwide are closed.

In this context, the niche cryptocurrency market unexpectedly becomes a popular window for observing commodity, traditional assets, and risk asset sentiment.

As of press time, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $63,000 after the conflict began on Saturday but has since recovered all losses. Meanwhile, perpetual swaps linked to gold surged above $5,400 per ounce after the conflict started, with the latest quotes falling back to around $5,300. Silver perpetual swaps briefly hit $97 per ounce, with the latest at $95. Contracts linked to crude oil also rose nearly 5%. US stock index perpetual contracts generally declined by 1%-2%.

(Silver perpetual contract hourly chart, Source: Hyperliquid)
It should be noted that, due to the relatively small and illiquid nature of these platforms, these prices should only serve as clues for Monday’s opening. More importantly, the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, making it difficult to predict what changes may occur within the next day.

According to U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, this round of military action could “last several days,” which will likely have a sustained impact on global markets next week. As the Middle Eastern aviation hubs of the UAE and Qatar are directly affected by the conflict, the international passenger market is also in chaos.

Recently, Dubai confirmed that a terminal corridor at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was slightly damaged in an incident, with four staff members injured.

Beyond the uncontrollable geopolitical situation, a series of events next week could trigger volatility across various assets.

For the U.S. stock market, which has been “weak at the 7,000-point level,” next Friday’s employment data will be especially important. Investors will watch whether the unexpectedly strong January data is a fleeting anomaly. Overall, unless employment figures are particularly weak, it will be difficult to significantly alter the Fed’s rate cut expectations.

(US January non-farm payrolls unexpectedly rose, Source: tradingeconomics)
LSEG data shows that the U.S. money market is not pricing in the next rate cut until July.

The UK government, recently embroiled in Epstein document turmoil, will also release its Spring Budget Statement next Tuesday. Market expectations are that UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce improved fiscal conditions and reduce government bond issuance.

As external environments become increasingly complex, China will enter “Two Sessions” next week. How China plans to lay out its development in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan will be a focus for Chinese investors and global markets.

On the corporate earnings front, next week Broadcom, a TPU concept stock, will release its latest earnings report, continuing the US market’s enthusiasm for AI investments. Hot stocks in quantum computing and satellite internet will also report their latest results. In Chinese concept stocks, JD.com and Bilibili will disclose their earnings, and the recent “Chinese AI Bull Stock” MiniMax will also release its first post-listing earnings on Monday.

Finally, as Nvidia, which lost trillions in market value over two days this week, CEO Jensen Huang will attend the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 4. The Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona will also kick off on Monday. Leading consumer electronics company Apple will start releasing spring new products from Monday and hold a media event on Wednesday.

Next Week’s Key Financial Events (Beijing Time)

Monday (March 2): Eurozone February Manufacturing PMI Final, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Israel (March 2-3), Apple begins spring product launches, MWC opening

Tuesday (March 3): South Korea markets closed, Eurozone February CPI

Wednesday (March 4): The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing, China February PMI, China February Official Manufacturing PMI, U.S. February ADP Employment Change

Thursday (March 5): The Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing, Fed releases Beige Book

Friday (March 6): U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls