BTC trend divergence: Most traders remain cautious about the breakout early in the year

LayerZeroHero · 2026-02-28T21:22:47+00:00

Research from Greeks.Live shows that since the launch of IBIT options, there has been a deep divergence in traders' opinions within the Bitcoin market. Bearish traders generally hold a pessimistic outlook, believing that the fundamentals of BTC have changed and that there are no positive signals technically. The likelihood of a breakout in the future is low, and market sentiment is mainly driven by caution.

LayerZeroHero

2026-02-28 21:22:47

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Greeks.Live’s latest research indicates that traders in the current market are deeply divided in their opinions. Since the launch of IBIT options products on November 19, 2024, Bitcoin’s investment logic has undergone a critical shift, prompting market participants to reevaluate the future trend.

The Bearish Camp Dominates, Traders’ Sentiment Becomes Increasingly Pessimistic

Bearish traders believe that since the introduction of these options instruments, Bitcoin has experienced a fundamental change. Continued weak performance and lack of upward momentum during the US trading hours are their main reasons for being bearish. These bearish traders point out that the price attempted to break through but ultimately failed to sustain the rally, reinforcing their pessimistic outlook for the future.

Daily Chart Still Shows No Positive Signals

From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick chart still exhibits bearish structural features. Traders generally believe that, given this technical backdrop, any breakout attempts appear weak and ineffective. There may be new volatility opportunities around early January, but most traders remain skeptical about any significant breakthroughs before the end of the year, believing that upward potential is quite limited.

Market Sentiment Mainly Driven by Caution

Although there are still bullish voices in the market, those holding the dominant narrative are mostly cautious traders. Based on Bitcoin’s actual performance and technical patterns since the launch of IBIT, they remain reserved about recent rebounds. This widespread cautious attitude is shaping the overall market expectations.

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