The three major stock index futures all decline as uncertainty over Trump's tariffs sweeps through the market

1. On February 23rd (Monday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures all declined. As of press time, Nasdaq futures are down 0.66%, S&P 500 futures down 0.46%, and Dow futures down 0.49%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index is down 0.59%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 index is up 0.50%, and Europe’s Stoxx 50 index is down 0.11%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil is up 0.36%, at $66.72 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.31%, at $71.52 per barrel.

Market News

Uncertainty over tariff policies is sweeping through financial markets, with the US dollar and stock futures declining, while spot gold rises above $5,170. On Monday, the US dollar index and the three major US stock index futures fell sharply, as uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding Trump’s tariff policies significantly weakened investor confidence in US assets and increased global market volatility risks. After the US Supreme Court ruled on the 20th that the US government’s large-scale tariff policies were “ultra vires,” Trump immediately issued a new executive order, emphasizing that the US government will continue to retain existing import tariffs under the frameworks of the “Section 301” and “Section 232” tariffs, and hinted at launching more trade investigations. As a result, concerns about the next steps in Trump’s tariff policies have intensified, leading to weakness in the three major US stock index futures. Spot gold has risen above $5,170 per ounce, up 1.3 intraday.

Demand for protective puts on US stocks has hit a four-year high, with Goldman Sachs noting that professional investors are preparing for a “breakthrough.” Despite a seemingly calm market surface, professional investors are unusually buying downside protection aggressively. Goldman’s latest data shows that although the S&P 500 has traded within one of its narrowest ranges in history over the past two months, institutional trading behavior resembles preparing for extreme volatility with the VIX reaching 35—while the current VIX is only 19. This abnormal divergence suggests a potential upcoming directional breakout. The urgency for defensive positioning is driven by key technical levels approaching. Goldman points out that gamma turns negative with slight declines, coinciding with the trigger threshold of their CTA momentum strategy. Goldman emphasizes this as “extremely important,” indicating the market may be preparing to reflect prolonged significant volatility at the stock level.

Super Week is coming with major events! Turmoil over Trump’s tariffs and escalating tensions in Iran, with Nvidia (NVDA.US) earnings highly anticipated. Last week, policy issues dominated market attention, culminating in the highly awaited Supreme Court ruling on Friday, which dismissed Trump’s large-scale tariff system. Subsequently, Trump quickly signed a 10% global tariff retaliating against the Supreme Court ruling, and on the 21st, he posted on social media that the “global import tariffs” on goods imported into the US would immediately increase from 10% to 15%. This highlights ongoing challenges and uncertainties in the global trade system. Oil prices, which have been steadily declining since 2025, have risen 15% since early 2026, largely due to tensions with Iran. Recent developments show US and Iran negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva this Thursday, with Trump inclined to carry out targeted strikes against Iran in the coming days, possibly escalating to larger-scale attacks in the coming months. The performance report for Nvidia, the world’s leading AI chip company, will be released after the market close on Wednesday Eastern Time. As the largest chipmaker by market value, Nvidia’s earnings will serve as a key indicator for the AI trading theme, which is a core driver of the global stock market bull run.

In light of Trump administration’s tariff risks, the EU plans to freeze approval procedures for trade agreements with the US. Media reports indicate that the EU is preparing to suspend its approval process for trade agreements with the US and is requesting more details from the Trump administration regarding its new tariff plans. Major political groups in the European Parliament announced they will pause legislative work on approving the trade agreement on Monday local time. Previously, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s use of emergency powers to implement so-called reciprocal tariffs globally was invalid. Zeljana Zovko, chief negotiator for the European People’s Party on the US trade agreement, stated: “We have no choice but to delay the approval process in hopes of clarifying the situation.”

The tariffs declared “illegal” by the US Supreme Court are nearing their end! The 15% new global tax seamlessly takes over. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that it will cease collecting tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Tuesday. This comes more than three days after the Supreme Court declared these tariffs “illegal.” The agency stated in a message to shippers via its Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) that all tariff policy codes related to Trump’s previous IEEPA executive orders will be deactivated starting Tuesday. Although President Trump indicated that the US would soon impose a 15% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, it remains unclear whether the US will need to refund previously collected tariffs.

Memory chip giant SK Hynix plans to expand AI storage chip capacity to meet surging demand. As its stock price has soared over fourfold in the past year, setting profit records, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won pledged to significantly increase AI storage chip capacity to satisfy the booming demand from global data centers. Speaking at a Washington conference on February 20, he called high-bandwidth memory (HBM) “monster-level chips,” noting that this product line is generating huge profits for SK Hynix. Driven by explosive growth in AI chip demand, the company’s stock performance leads the global semiconductor industry. Major US tech giants are engaged in a large-scale infrastructure race to gain an advantage in AI development. From Microsoft and Meta to other tech giants, an estimated total investment of about $650 billion will be made this year into AI infrastructure, fueling demand for high-performance storage chips like HBM, server DDR5, and enterprise SSDs.

Stock News

Arcellx (ACLX.US) stock surged over 78% pre-market, as Gilead Sciences (GILD.US) announced it will acquire Arcellx at $115 per share. Gilead, a leading US pharmaceutical company, said on Monday it will acquire its cancer therapy partner Arcellx, with an implied equity value of $7.8 billion, expanding their cell therapy collaboration started in 2022. Gilead will pay $115 in cash per share upon closing, a 79% premium over the last closing price. Gilead’s subsidiary Kite Pharma has long partnered with Arcellx to develop and sell anti-cel, an experimental CAR-T therapy for multiple myeloma, a blood cancer.

The US Supreme Court to hear ExxonMobil (XOM.US) lawsuit seeking compensation from Cuba. The court will review on Monday the scope of a law allowing US companies to seek damages from the Cuban government for seized property. The case involves ExxonMobil, amid increased pressure from the Trump-led US government on Cuba, with major energy operators caught in controversy. The court will hear two cases related to the 1996 Helms-Burton Act.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ.US) reports strong Q4 results, raises dividend by 14.4%. The US pizza leader posted robust Q4 earnings, achieving 32 consecutive years of same-store sales growth internationally and further increasing US market share. Driven by a 1.7% rise in food basket prices, higher franchise profits, and increased sales domestically and internationally, Domino’s overall profit grew 9%, with total sales up 6.4%. The company raised its quarterly dividend by over 14%, offsetting weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings, and its stock briefly rose nearly 6% before market open on Monday.

Key Economic Data and Events Schedule

• 21:00: Fed Governor Waller to speak
• 23:00: US December Factory Orders MoM
• 23:30: US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, Manufacturing Output Index