How to properly buy a deep crisis painting OP: Base is unfolding independence

The Optimism (OP) token is experiencing significant market pressure. The reason is simple and serious: Base, the main support of the ecosystem, announced a migration of infrastructure from OP Stack to its own unified platform. This means that future node releases and updates will come directly from the Base repository, bypassing Optimism. The market immediately responded to the news: OP hit a new all-time low (ATL), and funding has dropped to critically low levels. According to the latest data, the current OP price is $0.12, with a 24-hour increase of +2.03%, reflecting some stabilization after the decline.

Base: From Ally to Competitor in the Tech Stack

The Base team explained their departure as follows: they are abandoning the model of multiple components and dependence on external partners. Essentially, this means taking full control over the technological cycle — releases, upgrades, infrastructure management. This is painful for Optimism, as Base was not only the largest showcase of OP Stack but also the main economic driver of the entire stack. Financial flows from fees generated by Base fueled the Superchain model.

However, Base is far from the only player in this game. Superchain is a network ecosystem of Layer 2 solutions based on OP Stack, including OP Mainnet, Unichain, World Chain, and Soneium. But if the flagship leaves the ship, the market will inevitably reassess risk scales: will fees on other L2s decrease, will Optimism maintain its influence in the network, and will other clients follow Base’s example?

When the Market Looks for a Lifeline: Token Unlocks and Buybacks

Today, OP faces additional negative pressure — on February 28, 32.2 million OP tokens are scheduled to unlock. Although this is only about 1.52% of the market cap, the psychological impact of new inflows on the market is already noticeable. But Optimism is not sitting idly.

In January, the Optimism Foundation launched a buyback program — repurchasing its own tokens. The initiative was put to a vote: directing 50% of Superchain revenues to monthly OP buybacks. The vote passed convincingly: 84.4% in favor. The pilot period is set for 12 months. Although the volume of tokens to be bought back will decrease with Base’s departure, the mechanics remain a strong signal to the market of support for the price through increased demand.

A positive note: Base will continue collaborating with Optimism via OP Enterprise — a paid corporate support service for large clients. This confirms that the quality of Optimism’s technology is not in question. It’s about regaining control, not breaking partnerships.

Technical Picture: Between Hope and Despair

Technical analysis of OP paints a complex picture. In January, the token broke a local “bullish wedge” — a pattern expected for an upward correction. The break happened predictably: on January 25, OP returned to a stable downtrend on the daily timeframe. The price broke the October 10 low, reaching $0.1410 on the weekly timeframe.

Currently, the target levels from the daily timeframe are exhausted. All technical support levels are below the current price — meaning the asset will either bounce from the bottom or continue to devalue, adding zeros after the decimal. On the 4-hour timeframe, two Strong signals have already formed, offering a chance for a recovery bounce, but this is not guaranteed. Confirmation from a shorter-term trend is needed.

It’s worth noting: as early as September, OP’s price broke out of a global “bullish wedge” lasting a year and a half, but it still hovers near the bottom. This indicates a conflict between the long-term potential structure and the short-term reality.

Investment Perspective: Waiting for Liquidity Inflows

The OP position in the portfolio was built in two stages. The first purchase was back in September 2022 — at a price of $0.945. Later, a profit was taken at $2.243, yielding +139.53%. At that time, it seemed incredible that altcoins could show such movements.

The second attempt to buy during the recovery was in October — part of a 19-asset copy portfolio, where OP was purchased at $0.4414 after the dump on October 10. Currently, this portfolio is down -62.83%, with OP in particular down -68.12%.

In both cases, the goal is the same: to wait for a full influx of liquidity into quality altcoins when market attention shifts back to OP’s fundamental advantages as Ethereum’s second layer.

Today’s OP is traded less as a project’s technological asset and more as a reflection of market trust in future monetization and the long-term viability of the ecosystem. Base is leaving, but the Superchain remains.