What phase of the cycle are we in: Bitcoin at the crossroads of supply and regulation 🧨

Listen carefully: we are in a critical phase of the cycle where patience separates those who make money from those who just watch. Bitcoin charts don’t lie, and what we see now is an inflection point that requires cold analysis and concrete data.

Look at the chart we have: we are observing a textbook “Breakout Retest” in the historically significant zone. That line you see isn’t just anything; it’s the level that previously held us back and now, after a correction that made us sweat, Bitcoin is trying to use as a springboard toward new highs. If we hold this floor, the path to $100,000 and Fibonacci levels 1.618 remains open. But the battle is intense.

Miner Capitulation: When Exhaustion Precedes a Surge ⛏️💎

This is where most don’t see the full picture. The network’s hash rate recently dropped 14%. What does that mean? That many miners have become unprofitable and are abandoning their operations. But here’s the interesting part that few notice: when miners capitulate and stop selling because they simply have nothing left to liquidate, Bitcoin has historically entered phases of explosive growth in the following months.

On-chain data is clear: sellers in the mid-cycle phase are exhausted. Those who were afraid have already sold; now only those who understand where this is heading remain. This supply exhaustion is precisely the kind of signal that precedes major movements. It’s the phase where most still doubt, but the fundamentals scream that something important is about to happen.

Technical Analysis: $70,000 as an Inflection Point 🥊

Let’s look at the current numbers. The price is around $65,850, with a 24-hour decline of -2.71%, although the price history shows we’ve hit all-time highs of $126,080. While we’re below the 30- and 200-day moving averages (causing pessimists to raise their voices), the MACD indicates that selling pressure is waning.

The barrier to break is $70,000. If we convincingly break that level, trapped liquidity will explode, and we’ll target directly $79,248. If we fail, support at $66,714 must hold strong. This is the technical phase where it’s decided whether we continue upward or pull back.

Global Regulation vs. Sovereign Adoption: The Macro Backdrop 🏛️🌍

While U.S. politicians debate tariffs and delay legislation on digital assets, the rest of the world isn’t wasting time. Look at the United Arab Emirates: they’ve mined over $450 million in BTC and are not selling; they’re holding as a strategic reserve. That’s playing in a completely different league.

While U.S. politics generate noise and temporarily slow institutional investment, entire countries and companies adopting crypto create a steel floor for the long term. We are in a phase where technical analysis urges caution, but fundamentals tell us the engine is ready to start. Bitcoin isn’t collapsing; it’s shedding “weak hands” for what’s coming next.

The big question that defines this phase is clear: will regulatory progress in Washington lead us to new highs, or will miner exhaustion be the spark that ignites the fuse? What’s certain is that we are in a phase where both factors point in the same direction: upward.