Bitcoin Temporarily Corrects the Cycle, but On-Chain Activity Remains Resilient

The latest report from VanEck published in February 2026 provides a detailed picture of Bitcoin’s current state: prices are under strong pressure, market sentiment is deteriorating, but on-chain fundamentals still subtly suggest investors should not be overly pessimistic. According to PANews analysis, VanEck points out that this seemingly severe decline is actually a natural correction cycle, and blockchain signals indicate that the underlying fundamentals remain relatively solid.

Prices Drop Sharply But Selling Pressure Is Easing

In the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen by 23.65% — a significant correction that would worry many holders. The NUPL (Unrealized Profit/Loss) index has entered the “fear” zone, and numerous forced liquidations have occurred in the derivatives market. Open interest — a key indicator of leverage usage — has dropped to its lowest level since September 2024, indicating a broad deleveraging wave. But notably: these deleveraging episodes have long been considered a market self-healing mechanism, helping to eliminate excessive positions and reduce systemic risk over the long term.

Long-Term Holders Are Selling Less: A Sign of Normal Correction Cycles

One of the most important findings from the VanEck report is that the distribution rate from medium-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for 1-5 years) has slowed significantly in recent weeks. Even more surprisingly, long-term holders — those who have held Bitcoin for over a year — are selling even less during this downturn. This suggests that long-term investors are not “fleeing” but are waiting. The slowdown in this cycle distribution often signals that selling pressure may be peaking — a positive sign for those who believe in market cycles.

Miner Supply Tightens: Support at the Lower Levels

Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin sold by miners is decreasing. As miners — the new Bitcoin producers — start holding onto their supply, it indicates that the network’s fundamental health remains intact. Coupled with the slowdown in cycle distribution and healthy deleveraging episodes, VanEck concludes that these underlying fundamentals act as an invisible support layer beneath Bitcoin’s economy.

Is This Just a Normal Cycle Correction?

VanEck’s main view is that current Bitcoin prices may not fully reflect its true on-chain strength. While macro factors — unstable market sentiment, concerns over the global economy — have driven prices down, blockchain data tells a different story. Slowed distribution, tightening miner supply, and a self-correcting derivatives market all suggest that experienced participants are not panicking — they are waiting.

As markets continue to process macroeconomic uncertainties, on-chain indicators remain an important telescope to look further ahead. The question is not “Is Bitcoin dead?” but rather “Is this correction just a normal cycle within a long-term trend, or is it a deep structural change?” So far, blockchain data seems to be telling us the answer is the first question.