OP experiences a test of divergent thinking; can the 0.13 key support hold?

Investors facing assets like OP often fall into a common psychological trap—this is a typical example of a discrete thinking fallacy. When prices are high, investors hesitate to buy out of fear; when prices drop sharply, although the decline should present better opportunities, panic emotions also prevent them from acting. Currently, OP trading between $0.12 and $0.13 reflects the market fully pricing in this discrete thinking.

How Discrete Thinking Hijacks Investor Decisions

The core issue with discrete thinking is a lack of understanding of an asset’s long-term value. OP fell from $0.19 to $0.13, a 29% drop, which sounds frightening. But the real story is more nuanced. Many investors see only the risk in this number, ignoring the opportunities. This is a manifestation of discrete thinking—failing to connect price declines with value investment opportunities.

The same thinking also appears in selective information processing. When the market hears bad news, it tends to overreact. The OP ecosystem is no exception.

Overreaction Behind Base’s Exit

Base’s official announcement of operating independently from OP Stack triggered a significant sell-off. Data shows OP’s price dropped 32%, and ecosystem-generated revenue declined 41%. These figures are concerning. However, the market’s reaction may have exceeded the actual fundamental impact.

The key question is—does Base’s departure mean the OP ecosystem is declining? The answer isn’t simply yes. The OP ecosystem remains intact, with a strong technical framework; it just lost some revenue sharing from Base. This isn’t a “doomsday” event but a phase of ecosystem adjustment.

Whale Movements Reveal True Signals

The most influential market participants are the whales holding large capital. Notably, during the panic sell-off, whales have been actively accumulating around $0.14, with a total holding of 60 million OP.

This move is significant. Why would smart large funds increase their positions now? The likely answer points to a key upcoming event—the unlocking of 32.21 million OP on February 28. At current prices, this could bring over $400 million in market selling pressure. Market participants have already priced in this expectation and sold early. However, whale accumulation suggests that the selling pressure may be nearing a bottom.

Technical Indicators Signal a Bottom

From a technical perspective, conditions are gradually improving. The MACD has shifted into positive territory, although RSI remains below 50, while the J value of KDJ is in an extreme oversold state. The combination of these indicators sends a clear signal: the recent decline has been substantial and may be nearing exhaustion.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• First support: $0.12–$0.13 is the current key support zone.
• If this support breaks: next target drops to around $0.10.
• First resistance: $0.14 (a primary obstacle for a short-term rebound).

This technical setup aligns with the active whale accumulation, forming a mutually reinforcing pattern.

Layered Positioning and Risk Management Strategies

For investors wanting to participate at this stage, the focus should be on risk control rather than chasing quick gains.

Short-term trading suggestions:

Opportunities: Consider staggered buy-ins around $0.12, maintaining cautious position sizes. When the price rebounds toward the $0.14 resistance, gradually take profits. This approach allows participation in potential rebounds while effectively managing risk.

Risks: If the price continues to break below $0.12, consider shorting at appropriate points, with the first target near $0.10. However, such strategies are more suitable for experienced traders.

Advice for Trapped Investors

If you’re caught at $0.19 high, should you cut losses now? Based on data and technical signals, the answer is likely no. Bottom signals are gradually emerging, and rushing to sell may lock in losses.

However, if you still want to build positions, the most important rule is—don’t invest all your chips at once. Staggered small-scale entries can lower your average cost and keep flexibility to respond to further declines. The contrast between discrete thinking and systematic thinking often determines the final investment outcome.

When markets are full of panic, investors who can overcome the discrete thinking trap and stick to systematic decision-making tend to profit over cycles. OP’s story is far from over.