The US stock market trend is stuck in a stable deadlock: AI investment validation becomes key in 2026

After experiencing strong gains over the past two years, the U.S. stock market is currently in a delicate balancing period. The Nasdaq index has been sideways for several months, reflecting not a market downturn but an active adjustment of “buying time” and space. As the world’s most important stock market, the stability of U.S. stocks has, to some extent, become a collective choice among investors.

Stable Market Supported by Macro Policies

From a macro perspective, the U.S. stock market is currently in a rate-cutting cycle with relatively loose monetary policy, providing support for the stock market. Meanwhile, the midterm elections of 2024 have concluded, significantly reducing political cycle uncertainties. Under this policy environment, the likelihood of major adjustments is relatively low. Although “black swan” events are unpredictable, based on current fundamentals, U.S. stocks show relatively resilient characteristics. This stability is precisely the market’s way of accumulating strength for long-term growth ahead.

Massive AI Infrastructure Investment, but Growth Lacks Momentum

What truly troubles the market is the lack of a clear new growth engine. Over the past two years, nearly one trillion dollars have been invested in AI, with infrastructure largely completed. However, the actual output does not match the scale of investment—large language models have garnered widespread attention, but their productivity improvements are limited, and market enthusiasm has noticeably waned.

A fitting analogy for the current situation: the high-speed infrastructure has been built, but the actual operational vehicles are still nowhere to be seen. The AI industry, built with such enormous capital, struggles to demonstrate real commercial value if it remains at the text application level. This “waiting” state is a deeper reason behind the stable trend of U.S. stocks.

Autonomous Driving: The Reality Test for AI Industry

The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the real-world application of AI, especially those with physical interaction capabilities. In this regard, Tesla’s autonomous driving technology has become a focal point. If autonomous driving can achieve large-scale commercial operation, it would mean AI has truly entered the physical interaction stage of the real world from a theoretical level.

The value of autonomous driving is not only in technological breakthroughs but also in the derived business model—autonomous taxi services. Once this business loop is operational, the AI story can shift from “infrastructure investment” to “tangible commercial profits.” At that point, the growth momentum of U.S. stocks will be genuinely supported.

2026: A Watershed for the AI Industry and U.S. Stocks’ Future

A cautionary scenario also warrants attention. If AI continues to fail in real-world applications, the previous trillion-dollar investments could turn into substantial “bad debts”—similar to unfinished projects in the real estate market. If that happens, not only will U.S. stocks face difficulties, but the global markets could also experience chain reactions.

Therefore, 2026 will be a critical validation period for the entire AI industry and the future of U.S. stocks. Progress in autonomous driving, new application scenarios for large language models, and the actual returns on AI investments—these will be key variables determining the future direction of U.S. stocks. Whether the market can continue to grow depends on whether the AI industry can cross the crucial hurdle from “high-speed infrastructure construction” to “real operational deployment.”