Zimbabwe Lithium Mine Suspension of Exports: A-shares Lithium Resources "Independently Controllable" Gaining Popularity

The lithium salt market, which was already in a tight balance, faces an additional significant variable on the supply side.

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines issued a ban on lithium ore exports, including goods in transit, with no clear timeline for resumption.

Zimbabwe has been one of the fastest-growing countries in global lithium concentrate production in recent years, attracting several Chinese lithium companies to develop local resources.

Data shows that in 2025, China’s total lithium concentrate imports were about 7.751 million tons, with imports from Zimbabwe reaching 1.204 million tons, accounting for approximately 15.5% of total imports, making Zimbabwe the second-largest source after Australia.

Following the precedent of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export suspension causing a rise in cobalt prices in 2025, Zimbabwe’s restrictions on lithium concentrate exports have also heightened market expectations for rising lithium prices.

However, after the holiday, lithium carbonate prices and spot prices have already surged, approaching the previous high in late January this year. Due to intense bullish and bearish debates, many futures contracts opened high and then declined on the 26th, with the Wind lithium ore index’s gains narrowing significantly to 1.19%.

In comparison, domestic lithium resources are more favored by the market, especially low-cost salt lake enterprises less affected by overseas export policy changes.

As of the close on February 26, Jinyuan Co., which has salt lake resources in its布局, hit the daily limit, while Salt Lake Co., which develops the Chahansalt Lake, rose nearly 8%, clearly leading over the more globally-oriented “lithium giants.”

“Value Retention” Strategy

Zimbabwe has strengthened its control over lithium resources, which was foreshadowed earlier.

In December 2022, then-Minister of Mines Chitando signed an order banning the export of unprocessed lithium ore for the first time, initiating a “value retention” strategy to force mining companies to refine minerals locally and gain greater economic benefits from national resources.

However, it was also in Q4 2022 that global lithium prices peaked and then declined, with lithium carbonate prices falling as much as 90% by 2025. Plans for local smelting capacity construction slowed down.

By June 2025, Chitando explicitly announced a full ban on lithium ore exports starting January 2027, allowing only exports of processed products like lithium sulfate.

“By the end of 2025, the Minister of Mines was replaced from Winston Chitando to Polit Kamwamba, who adopted a more aggressive enforcement strategy,” China Grain Futures noted.

The new policy only allows companies with valid mining rights and approved beneficiation or smelting plants to apply for export licenses, strictly prohibiting third-party agents and requiring provincial compliance certificates. However, companies with local lithium salt or lithium sulfate production capacity can still apply for ore export licenses, and lithium sulfate exports continue normally.

The above institutions also pointed out that this policy shift marks a significant step in the resource nationalism trend in African countries, causing sudden shocks to the global lithium supply chain.

It is worth noting that high-quality projects in traditional lithium-rich regions like South America and Australia had already been allocated to industry giants such as Albemarle and Tianqi Lithium before 2020.

Therefore, after the 2020 lithium price surge, African countries like Zimbabwe attracted substantial overseas investment, significantly accelerating local lithium resource development, becoming one of the main incremental sources of global lithium supply.

USGS (United States Geological Survey) data shows that Zimbabwe’s lithium resource output in 2025 will be 28,000 metric tons, about 10% of the world’s lithium resource production.

China also has the world’s largest lithium salt smelting capacity, and most of Zimbabwe’s lithium ore was previously sold domestically.

Dongwu Futures data indicates that in 2025, China’s total lithium concentrate imports will be about 7.751 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 39.4%. Among them, imports from Zimbabwe reached 1.204 million tons, accounting for about 15.5% of total imports, second only to Australia (3.817 million tons).

Zimbabwe’s announcement to suspend exports has added supply concerns to an already tight domestic market. “Although domestic salt lakes and lithium mines in Hunan have increased supply, they still cannot cover Zimbabwe’s shortfall,” China Grain Futures pointed out.

Based on Zimbabwe’s supply volume and domestic lithium ore inventories, if the ban lasts less than a month, the impact can be managed with resilient inventories; if it exceeds a month, raw material supply tensions will intensify.

“Self-Controlled” Lithium Mining Stocks Lead the Rise

Before Zimbabwe confirmed the suspension of lithium exports, on February 24, the domestic futures market had already reported that local lithium mining companies’ exports were halted by MMCZ (Zimbabwe Mineral Marketing Corporation), triggering a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures on the first trading day after the holiday.

For example, the current main contract LC2605’s settlement price rose from 148,400 yuan/ton to 167,800 yuan/ton between February 24 and 25.

Additionally, as lithium carbonate futures approached the previous high in late January, the divergence between bullish and bearish funds intensified. After the export suspension news spread widely on the 26th, lithium carbonate futures opened high and then declined throughout the day, with overall gains narrowing to around 3%.

In fact, experienced investors in the futures market are no strangers to such events of Zimbabwe strengthening resource control, especially in emerging strategic metals like cobalt and lithium.

In November 2022, when domestic lithium carbonate prices hit 600,000 yuan/ton, the Canadian government required companies like Zhongkuang Resources and Shengxin Lithium to divest their investments in related Canadian mineral companies.

In February 2025, the Congo (DRC) government announced a suspension of cobalt exports to address global cobalt oversupply, which led to a significant increase in cobalt prices that year.

In January 2026, the two-year-long “public-private partnership” case involving Chile’s SQM was finalized, with its core lithium salt business to be transferred to Codelco (Chile’s state copper company).

“Unprecedented global changes are accelerating, geopolitical risks are frequent and increasingly severe, major powers’ competition over key minerals continues to escalate, and the global supply and industrial chains face multiple risks. The pattern of mineral development is being reshaped,” recent analysis by Zijin Mining, which also has lithium salt operations, stated.

In response, Zijin plans to focus its overseas investments over the next three years on neighboring countries with land routes to China and other markets with good legal environments and friendly relations.

Against this backdrop, companies with domestic resource concentration and less dependence on overseas mineral imports face more controllable operational risks.

Post-holiday, the secondary market also shows that resource-end “self-controlled” companies are more likely to attract funding.

On February 26, Alibaba’s Jinyuan Co., which develops salt lakes, hit the daily limit, with Salt Lake Co., which owns salt lakes in Chahansalt Lake, rising nearly 8%.

In contrast, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, which have extensive lithium resources in Australia and Africa, respectively, rose 3.17% and 2.14% on the same day.

Further comparing post-holiday lithium mining stocks, the top five gainers are all “self-controlled” lithium companies, such as Jiangte Motor in the mica lithium field, Yongxing Materials, and Tibet Mining, which develops the Zabuye Salt Lake.

The common choice made by these secondary market players is unlikely to be mere coincidence.

(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)