Fundstrat analyst's latest assessment: ETH needs to drop once more before bottoming out

The market has already reached the edge of the cliff. According to the latest comments from Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, in an interview with Decrypt, current crypto market sentiment has plummeted to a freezing point, and price trends are showing extremely pessimistic signals. However, this precisely indicates that the bottom is very close. The recent decline is slowly coming to an end.

Analyst’s “Final Drop” Theory

Fundstrat’s chief analyst Tom Demar is straightforward in his market outlook: since November last year, he has been bearish on BTC, expecting it to drop to around $60,000. As for Ethereum’s bottom, his initial prediction was $2,400, but if that support level is broken, ETH will find its final bottom near $1,890.

Tom Lee himself added that the market only needs to experience one more dip to reach the lowest point of this decline. In other words, we are no longer in the middle of a prolonged bear market but at the tail end of this correction.

Fundstrat’s 2026 Strategy vs. Current Situation

According to Fundstrat’s internal crypto strategy for 2026, the official institutional outlook is clear:

First half of the year’s market forecast:

• BTC target price range: $60,000 to $65,000
• ETH target price range: $1,800 to $2,000
• SOL target price range: $50 to $75

Notably, these predictions all suggest a significant correction in the first half of the year. For example, ETH’s lower target of $1,800 is about 264,000 yen, which is a critical support level where the market may bottom out.

As of February 26, real-time data shows BTC at $66,620 and ETH at $1,990—prices already approaching or entering Fundstrat’s predicted target ranges, further confirming the analyst’s view that the bottom is near.

Divergence Between “All-Time High” and “Bottom-Finding” Perspectives

Interestingly, Tom Lee himself maintains a very optimistic stance publicly. He has repeatedly claimed that both BTC and ETH will hit new all-time highs by January 2026. This divergence—“official strategy being bearish for a correction, personal view optimistic for new highs”—reflects differing market perceptions about the strength of the subsequent rebound.

However, the current market trajectory—experiencing a deep correction first, followed by a rebound—aligns well with the “one more dip” theory. This suggests that the current moment may be the final buying window and the last moment of panic.