Traders Bet Big on Bitcoin Surging Past $100K Mark Amid Political Shift

Cryptocurrency derivatives markets are buzzing with activity as investors position themselves for substantial bitcoin price movements. Recent trading activity on leading options platforms reveals growing confidence that BTC will break through psychological resistance levels following Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. The $100K price target has emerged as a focal point for traders navigating both technical and political headwinds.

Options Markets Flash Bullish Signals Through Massive Call Positioning

The appetite for bullish derivatives contracts has intensified dramatically on Deribit, one of the largest crypto options exchanges. A single trader deployed over $6 million in capital to acquire call options struck at $100,000, with contracts set to expire on March 28, according to market analysis from Amberdata. This substantial bet reflects conviction that bitcoin will establish new all-time highs within months of the political transition.

Beyond this singular trade, broader market positioning underscores even more aggressive expectations. Traders collectively maintain net long exposure at the $120,000 strike level, making this the most actively traded option on the platform with notional open interest exceeding $1.52 billion. For context, a call option grants purchasers the right to acquire bitcoin at predetermined prices, allowing traders to capture outsized returns if the underlying asset appreciates significantly.

At the time of market snapshot, bitcoin traded near $99,500, representing an 8% rebound from its late December low of $91,384. Current data shows BTC trading around $68.23K, having established fresh lifetime highs of $126.08K, demonstrating the market’s capacity for dramatic repricing when sentiment shifts.

Policy Expectations Drive Market Optimism Around Price Targets

Professional market participants view the political environment as a potential catalyst for sustained rally conditions. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, emphasized that the inauguration period and immediate aftermath represent “prime-time for bullish announcements and policies that could be bullish catalysts for bitcoin to move higher.”

The cryptocurrency industry has long anticipated regulatory changes under new administration leadership. CF Benchmarks, a regulated cryptocurrency index provider, outlined potential structural improvements in its recent annual report. The firm suggested that SEC reorganization under cryptocurrency-friendly leadership could substantially reduce enforcement risks while simultaneously fostering innovation through streamlined compliance frameworks. Such developments, if implemented, would enhance institutional investor confidence in digital asset markets.

However, analysts caution against assuming a straight path higher. CF Benchmarks noted that “implementation delays or policy shifts may temper market optimism, creating short-term volatility.” This recognition of execution risk reflects realistic assessment that regulatory frameworks require time to develop and implement.

The rally from approximately $70,000 in early November 2025—when Trump won the election—to peaks above $108,000 weeks later demonstrated the market’s responsiveness to pro-crypto political developments. However, momentum stalled during late December as profit-taking and hawkish Federal Reserve communications pressured asset prices.

Technical Dynamics and Risk Factors to Monitor

Bitcoin’s recent action has generated spillover effects across the broader digital asset ecosystem. Altcoins including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) experienced sharp upside moves, while cryptocurrency-focused equities like Coinbase similarly participated in the rebound. This coordinated movement reflects positioning adjustments rather than fundamental catalysts, according to market observers including LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger, who urged caution about the move’s durability.

Joshua Lim from FalconX noted that “some funds are chasing the rally, rotating to volatile altcoins and options,” signaling that the recent action may represent tactical rather than strategic positioning. The relative thinness of liquidity and outsized bearish positioning create conditions for sharp reversals without warning.

Technical analysts identify critical resistance levels requiring sustained breakdown to confirm structural strength. Bitcoin must convincingly break through $72,000 and $78,000 barriers on a sustained basis to signal authentic uptrend conditions. Failure to establish acceptance above these levels would suggest the recent bounce represents tactical rather than strategic reversal.

The convergence of massive options positioning at $100K and $120K strikes, combined with optimistic policy expectations and technical positioning dynamics, creates an environment ripe for significant price movement in either direction. The $100K threshold has become the symbolic battleground where bullish conviction will be tested against technical resistance and profit-taking pressures.