2026 Financial Outlook: How Long Will the Upward Trend Continue?

To predict the financial outlook for 2026, it is first necessary to understand the fundamental factors driving gold prices. Last year, gold prices reached a historic high, and the upward trend has continued into the beginning of this year. Experts generally have a positive outlook for gold in 2026, but potential adjustments due to changes in the economic situation should also be considered.

Major Variables Influencing Gold Prices

To understand gold price movements, a comprehensive look at macroeconomic factors and geopolitical situations is required. The main variables currently driving the recent rise in gold prices are as follows.

Spread of the De-dollarization Trend

Countries around the world are strengthening efforts to reduce the share of the US dollar in international trade settlements. Examples include China’s push for yuan internationalization, India’s expansion of rupee-based payments, and sanctions evasion moves by countries like Russia and Iran. This de-dollarization trend directly increases demand for gold as an alternative asset, leading to a bullish effect on gold prices.

Escalation of International Political Instability

Global geopolitical risks are highly correlated with gold prices. Gold is preferred as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty. During the 2008 global financial crisis, gold prices surged, and similar patterns appeared during the 2011 European debt crisis and the 2020 pandemic. Recently, ongoing international political tensions such as US-China trade conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine war, and military conflicts in the Middle East have increased investor demand for gold.

Signs of Economic Weakness in Major Economies

Signs of economic slowdown in developed countries also support higher gold prices. Rate cuts are generally interpreted as signals of economic weakness, prompting investors to shift funds into safe assets like gold. Additionally, when interest rates are lowered, the reduced yields on interest-bearing assets decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, further incentivizing investment in gold.

How High Have Gold Prices Reached Recently?

Both domestic and international gold prices have shown significant upward momentum. As of mid-January, the gold price on Korea Gold Exchange was 952,000 KRW per 1 don (a traditional Korean weight unit), which is approximately a 76% increase from 541,000 KRW at the same time last year. The Korea Gold Exchange chart indicates a steady upward trend over most periods, suggesting a medium-term bullish trend rather than short-term volatility.

International gold prices also remain strong. As of mid-January, the international gold price was about $4,585 per ounce, representing a roughly 5.85% increase since the start of the year and approximately 37.97% over the past six months. Considering it is still early in the year, this is a very steep rise.

Experts’ Outlook for Gold in 2026

Overall, major global financial institutions have a generally optimistic outlook for gold in 2026.

J.P. Morgan suggests that gold could reach around $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs expects further upside potential into the first half of 2026, while HSBC is more aggressive, mentioning the possibility of reaching $5,000 per ounce during the first half of the year. However, HSBC also notes the potential for increased price volatility.

Based on these forecasts, it is highly likely that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026. Nonetheless, considering possible price corrections in the second half, proper risk management is essential when investing.

Points to Watch When Investing

A positive outlook for gold does not mean expecting only upward movement. In the 2026 gold market, attention should be paid to variables such as:

If economic recovery occurs faster than expected, safe-haven demand may decline. Changes in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy or improvements in key economic indicators in major countries could also exert downward pressure on gold prices. Investors should continuously monitor macroeconomic signals and manage their positions accordingly.

A positive long-term outlook provides a basis for maintaining a long-term investment strategy, but preparations for short-term volatility are also necessary.