Global Headlines | U.S. stock three major indices close higher, with a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On January 26th, Eastern Time (Monday), the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.50% at 6,950.23 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.64% at 49,412.40 points; and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.43% at 23,601.36 points.

【U.S. Bonds】

On January 26th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.56%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia fell 0.64%, Google C rose 1.57%, Google A rose 1.63%, Apple increased 2.97%, Microsoft gained 0.93%, Amazon declined 0.31%, TSMC dropped 0.63%, Meta rose 2.07%, Tesla fell 3.09%, Super Micro Semiconductor decreased 3.22%, and Intel dropped 5.72%.

【Global Indices】

【China Indices】

On January 26th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 1.05%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 0.63%, and FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.34%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) rose 0.76%, Alibaba fell 1.09%, Pinduoduo increased 0.44%, NetEase gained 0.39%, Baidu dropped 3.32%, Ctrip rose 1.73%, Li Auto increased 1.38%, Xpeng Motors fell 2.42%, and NIO declined 0.54%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady this week is 97.2%

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, with a 97.2% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March is 15.5%, with an 84.1% chance of no change, and a 0.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut. (Cailian Press)

The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) volume was $1.489 billion on Monday

The Fed’s overnight RRP volume on Monday was $1.489 billion (7 counterparties), compared to $927 million on the previous trading day.

Microsoft releases latest AI chip aimed at reducing dependence on Nvidia

Microsoft announced its second-generation AI chip, Maia 200, as part of efforts to improve service efficiency and provide an alternative to Nvidia hardware. The chip is manufactured by TSMC and is gradually being deployed in Microsoft data centers in Iowa, with the next deployment planned for the Phoenix area. On January 26th, Microsoft invited developers to start using Maia’s control software, but it’s unclear when Azure cloud users will be able to run servers based on this chip. (Cailian Press)

Alibaba’s Qianwen flagship model debuts, performance rivals GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro

On January 26th, Alibaba officially released the Qwen3-Max-Thinking reasoning model, setting multiple global records in authoritative evaluations. Its performance rivals GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro, making it the strongest domestic AI large model closest to top international models. Qwen3-Max-Thinking has over one trillion parameters, trained with larger-scale reinforcement learning, and series of innovations in reasoning technology, resulting in significant performance leaps. It outperforms top models like GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, and Gemini 3 Pro in key benchmarks, setting global records and expanding the reasoning capabilities of AI systems. It also significantly enhances native agent capabilities for tool invocation, allowing the model to think and use tools like a professional, providing more user-friendly, intelligent, and fluent responses. The hallucination rate is also greatly reduced, laying a foundation for solving complex real-world tasks. (Sina Finance)

Wall Street’s top investment banks expect U.S. corporate profits to move beyond big tech dominance

Some top strategists on Wall Street see early signs that U.S. corporate earnings are expanding into sectors outside the core of AI-driven mega-tech stocks. Although earnings season is still early, JPMorgan analysts report that about half of the S&P 500 companies providing guidance for 2026 are exceeding expectations. “Since most of the companies currently reporting are outside the tech sector, this trend indicates broader growth across other industries this year,” said strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. Goldman Sachs also expects profits to support growth. Led by Ben Snider, the strategist team predicts strong economic growth in the first half of 2026, which will benefit smaller, more cyclical stocks more in the short term than the largest market-cap stocks. After three years of dominance by heavyweight tech stocks, other indicators further support a broader market rally. (Sina Finance)

U.S. Treasury yields remain stable ahead of Federal Reserve meeting

Ahead of the Fed meeting, U.S. Treasury yields remain steady amid outdated data and rising political tensions. Data delayed by the October government shutdown shows that November durable goods orders increased 5.3%, above the Wall Street Journal economists’ forecast of 4.5%, while October data was revised to a decline of 2.1%. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Powell likely to face questions about the central bank’s independence. The threat of a government shutdown increases as Democrats link funding support to immigration enforcement adjustments. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.227%, and the 2-year yield is 3.605%, both roughly unchanged from Friday. The Wall Street Journal dollar index is flat, and gold has risen 1.5%. (Sina Finance)

Nvidia releases new Earth-2 weather forecasting model

Ahead of a major winter storm affecting most of the U.S., weather forecasts vary greatly, with snow predictions fluctuating significantly. Nvidia has released its new Earth-2 weather model at an opportune moment. These AI models aim to make weather forecasting faster and more accurate. Nvidia states that one model, Earth-2 Medium Range, outperforms Google DeepMind’s GenCast AI weather model across more than 70 variables. GenCast, released by Google in December 2024, already surpasses traditional models that forecast up to 15 days. Nvidia officially launched these new tools at the American Meteorological Society conference in Houston on Monday. (Sina Finance)

Xiangyu Medical leads the establishment of a provincial-level brain-computer interface rehabilitation device innovation center

Recently, the Henan Provincial Science and Technology Department approved the construction of the Henan Brain-Computer Interface Rehabilitation Device Technology Innovation Center, with Xiangyu Medical leading the application. It is the first provincial-level brain-computer interface technology innovation platform approved for construction in China. The center is jointly built by Xiangyu Medical, Zhengzhou University, and the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, focusing on key core technology breakthroughs to meet clinical needs and boost the development of China’s brain-computer interface rehabilitation device industry. (People’s Financial News)

TianShu Intelligence releases fourth-generation chip roadmap, aims to surpass Nvidia’s Rubin by 2027

Sources reveal that TianShu Intelligence announced its fourth-generation chip architecture roadmap, aiming to surpass Nvidia’s Rubin architecture by 2027. The plan includes: in 2025, TianShu TianShu architecture surpasses Hopper; in 2026, TianShu TianXuan architecture targets Blackwell; also in 2026, TianShu TianJi surpasses Blackwell; and in 2027, TianShu TianQuan surpasses Rubin. After 2027, the focus will shift to breakthrough computing chip architecture design. TianShu also launched the “Tongyang” series edge computing products, with performance in computer vision, natural language processing, and DeepSeek 32B large models exceeding Nvidia’s AGX Orin in tests. (Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily)

Citigroup reduces Alibaba-W long position to 5.33%

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Citigroup’s long position in Alibaba Group Holding Limited - W decreased from 5.35% to 5.33% as of January 20, 2026.