Report: Early 2026 VLCC spot freight rates perform exceptionally strong, with momentum spreading to smaller vessel types

Oil tanker market shows positive start in 2026, according to the latest OPEC monthly report. Supported by geopolitical uncertainties, weather disruptions, unplanned outages, and steady cargo activities, spot freight rates for black oil tankers in January experienced a strong beginning. VLCC spot freight rates at the start of 2026 performed unusually strongly, with this momentum extending to smaller vessel types. Spot freight rates from the Middle East to the east reached their highest January levels in at least ten years, up 64% year-over-year.

Suezmax freight rates were supported by weather disruptions in the Atlantic basin and spillover effects from the VLCC market. As European refineries seek alternative crude flows due to disrupted Caspian pipeline alliances, Suezmax rates on the US Gulf to Europe route rose 12% month-over-month, more than doubling year-over-year. Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly in January, with cold weather occupying capacity in the Atlantic basin. Cross-Mediterranean Aframax spot rates increased 10% month-over-month, reaching a ten-year high for the month.

In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates performed strongly, led by the East of Suez region. Freight rates from the Middle East to the east increased 17% month-over-month, while rates around the Mediterranean rose 5%.

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs)

Although down from high levels in the previous month, VLCC spot freight rates on most monitored routes remained at decade-high levels in January. Geopolitical uncertainties, weather disruptions, and steady demand for oil tankers supported the large vessel market. The average VLCC spot freight rate decreased 12% month-over-month but increased 57% year-over-year.

On the Middle East to east route, January’s average rate was WS95, the highest in over ten years for the month. This still represents a 12% decline from the previous month but is 64% higher than the same month last year. The Middle East to west route’s spot freight rate fell 20% month-over-month to an average of WS52 but was still 49% higher than in January 2025.

On the West Africa to east route, spot freight rates declined 8% from December’s high to an average of WS93. Compared to January 2025, rates increased 55%.

Weather disruptions in the Atlantic basin and spillover effects from the VLCC market drove the rise in Suezmax spot freight rates in January. On average, Suezmax rates increased 9% month-over-month, up 106% compared to January 2025.

On the West Africa to US Gulf Coast route, January’s spot freight rate averaged WS141, up 6% month-over-month. Compared to January 2025, rates increased 104%. The US Gulf to Europe route saw freight rates rise 12% month-over-month to an average of WS131, up 108% year-over-year.

Aframax Tankers

Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly in January, with cold weather adding uncertainty in the Atlantic basin. The Aframax rate increased 16% month-over-month on average. Compared to January 2025, rates rose 83%.

The Indonesia to east route’s spot freight rate increased 6% month-over-month, averaging WS169. Year-over-year, this route’s rates rose 44%.

The Caribbean to US East Coast route saw a 34% surge in spot freight rates, averaging WS283. An increase of 128% compared to last year. Mediterranean nearby routes rebounded after a decline the previous month. Cross-Mediterranean freight rates rose 10% month-over-month to an average of WS212, up 75% from January 2025. The Mediterranean to Northwest Europe route increased 13% month-over-month, averaging WS213, up 79% year-over-year.

Clean Tanker Freight Rates

Clean tanker spot freight rates performed strongly, led by exports from the Middle East. Freight rates east of Suez increased 9% month-over-month, while rates west of Suez rose 2%. Compared to the previous year, east of Suez rates increased 40%, and west of Suez rates rose 18%. The Middle East to east route’s freight rates increased 17% to an average of WS204, 40% higher than January 2025.

Singapore to east route’s clean spot freight rates increased 2% month-over-month, averaging WS204, up 40% year-over-year. In contrast, freight rates from Northwest Europe to US East Coast declined 8% month-over-month, averaging WS119, down 17% year-over-year.

Meanwhile, cross-Mediterranean freight rates increased 5% to an average of WS226. The Mediterranean to Northwest Europe route increased 6% to an average of WS239. Year-over-year, the Mediterranean route’s spot freight rates are 34% higher.