Retail Investors vs Whales: The BTC Price Battle at $68K

On February 22, BTC is trading around $68.06K (24-hour low at $67.76K), and the market is falling into an old pattern: a group rushing to buy, while another waits cautiously. The difference isn’t in the price, but in psychology – and that’s why most retail investors are “still losing.” This article will help you understand how this battle unfolds.

What is Retail? Why do retail investors often lose money?

“Retail” investors are individuals trading with small amounts, making decisions based on emotions and FOMO (fear of missing out), often following others’ actions. It’s not because they are stupid, but because they lack access to deep market data, don’t have the financial capacity to wait long, and their psychology is driven by impulsiveness.

When BTC “looks cheap” (from a price perspective), retail usually starts buying – just as large holders (whales/organizations) are preparing to “sell off.”

The difference between Retail and Whale strategies

Retail buys because:

• They see the price dropping (fear, feeling “cheap”)
• They hear positive news and want to join in
• They fear missing out (FOMO)
• Often buy at fake peaks or mid-range tops

Whale/Organizations accumulate because:

• They analyze on-chain data and detailed order books
• They wait for support levels with high liquidity (easy to defend)
• They have large capital to wait months or even years
• They buy at levels below those, unseen by retail

On February 6, BTC hit around ~$60K (testing support near $60,008–$60,074) and then rebounded. What was that? It was a “liquidity wall” of about $34 million USD – quite large, but on the second test, its strength weakened significantly. Whales exited their positions there, and if the price returns, this wall could break easily, leading to cascade liquidations.

Key support levels: From $68K to $55K

Looking at the Volume Profile (VPVR), the technical picture becomes clearer:

$68K–$70K zone: Thin liquidity, just a trap for retail to buy in. No real “wall.”

$60K zone (second test): As mentioned, this wall has weakened. It will break more easily on a third test.

$55K zone: This is the real “battlefield” – where whales are waiting. There are three thick volume layers (39M + 15M + 11M), totaling over $65 million USD. This is the Point of Control (POC), the strongest support level. Whales accumulate here because: (1) Liquidity is thick, slippage is low. (2) Easy to defend against sell-offs.

Whale accumulation strategy at $55K

Whales are patient. They test support, gather data, and observe how much retail panics and sells at each level. Each test, on-chain liquidation data shows a large number of shorts/longs being cleared – a perfect time for whales to buy.

At $55K, with dense volume bars, they can buy with minimal slippage. This is the “ripe fruit” whales are waiting for.

Retail buys again at $68K, thinking they are “early investors.” In reality, they are chasing after the sharks.

Advice for retail investors: Avoid FOMO, stick to your plan

Buying at $68K now:

• You’re running ahead of whales, making you “bait.”
• Price could retest $60K or drop to $55K before a real bounce.
• Risk/Reward is not favorable: you might wait for a better entry.

Safer strategy:

1. Short-term: The market remains risk-off (macro debt, liquidations cascade) → possible retest of $60K, even $55K.
2. If you want to accumulate: Wait for confirmation of a “higher low” around $55K–$58K. That’s the “true cheap” zone in whale terms.
3. Selective holding: Only hold strong BTC, avoid heavy altcoin bleeding during the bear phase.
4. Key point: Retail buys because “it’s cheap.” Whales buy because “they also want to buy there.”

Where are you in this picture – buying the dip at $68K or waiting for $55K? Comment your strategy below!