(Combined with AI analysis) Lantu Automotive plans to go public on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through an introduction on March 19, 2026: stock price forecast

Regarding the stock price forecast for VOYAH (Lantu) planning to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 19, 2026, via the introduction method, a comprehensive assessment should be conducted considering multiple dimensions such as its fundamentals, market environment, valuation logic, peer comparison, liquidity expectations, and the particularities of the “Introduction Listing” approach. The following analysis aims to provide investors with decision-making references, helping to determine whether to reduce holdings at a high on the first day or to continue holding in the subsequent period.

1. Core Basis: Implicit Pricing from Dongfeng Group’s Privatization Plan
   This is currently the most authoritative and practically valuable anchoring point.

According to Dongfeng Motor Group (00489.HK)’s announced privatization and spin-off plan in August 2025:

Each Dongfeng H-share shareholder will receive:
6.68 HKD in cash (tax-free)
0.3552608 Lantu H-shares

The overall consideration for this scheme has been widely accepted by the market as 10.85 HKD per Dongfeng share (as estimated by institutions such as CICC, Huatai, etc.).

From this, the implied value per Lantu share can be inferred as:
(10.85 − 6.68) ÷ 0.3552608 ≈ 11.735 HKD per share

This 11.735 HKD was an internal valuation based on Lantu’s 2024 sales data (194 billion RMB revenue) and the EV/PS environment for new energy vehicles at that time (approximately 1.9x).

Note that this is not the IPO offering price but the accounting consideration in the privatization transaction, mainly used for tax and equity conversion purposes, and does not directly determine the secondary market price.

2. Fundamentals Have Significantly Surpassed Expectations: Valuation Should Be Adjusted Upward
   Since August 2025 to February 2026, Lantu’s operational data has improved markedly:

• Full-year 2025 sales reached approximately 140,000 units (estimated from January 2026 delivery reports), far exceeding 80,000 in 2024;
• Net profit in 2025 was 1.017 billion RMB (official disclosure), achieving full-year profitability;
• Five consecutive months of monthly deliveries exceeding 10,000 units, with high contributions from the high-end MPV “Dreamer” and pure electric sedan “Zhuiguang”;
• Market expectations for 2026 sales have generally been raised to 180,000–200,000 units.

This implies that, if still using a PS=1.9x valuation, with 2025 revenue around 34.8 billion RMB, then:

Lantu’s reasonable market value = 34.8 billion × 1.9 ≈ 66.1 billion RMB ≈ 71.4 billion HKD

Based on a total share capital of approximately 3.671 billion shares (referencing previous disclosures), the theoretical per-share value is about 19.45 HKD.

If we consider Ideal Auto’s current (early 2026) PS of about 2.2x (due to its profitability and high gross margins), then Lantu’s valuation could reach 22–24 HKD per share.

3. Market Sentiment and Peer Benchmarking: Supports Premium Listing

• Li Auto (02015.HK) currently trades around 160 HKD, with a 2025 PE of about 16x and PS of approximately 2.1x;
• Xpeng and NIO are still unprofitable, with PS below 1.0x;
• Leapmotor (09863.HK) is marginally profitable, with PS around 0.7x, and its stock price has been sluggish long-term;
• Lantu is the only new force with “profitable at listing + state-owned enterprise background + full-stack self-research + high-end positioning,” making it scarce.

Several brokerages (such as CICC, CITIC CLSA) issued reports in January 2026 setting initial target prices for Lantu’s listing between 18–25 HKD.

4. Liquidity Reality of Introduction Listing: Likely to Open High on Day One but Volatile
   Because:

• No IPO fundraising, no cornerstone investors backing;
• Only about 885 million shares in circulation initially (roughly 24% of total shares);
• Most Dongfeng shareholders are passive holders with some willingness to realize gains;
  Therefore, even with strong fundamentals, the first day may see a “gap up—volatility—pullback” pattern.

Historical references:

• Yum China (2020): +46% on first day, down 12% next day;
• KE Holdings (2022): +12% on first day, then sideways for two weeks;
• Jitu Express (2024): +33% on first day, but halved the gain after one month.

Conclusion: A high opening on the first day is likely, but blindly chasing the high is not advisable.

5. Post-Calibration First Day Price Forecast (Practical Version)
   Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Opening/Closing Price Forecast | Action Advice
   Conservative | Weak market sentiment, HK market declines | Open 14–16 HKD, close around 15±1 HKD | Buy/Hold, undervalued significantly
   Baseline (Most Likely) | Stable market, recognition of profitability | Open 18–22 HKD, close 19–21 HKD | Hold and observe, wait for Q1 data
   Optimistic | Renewable energy sector rebounds + capital chasing scarce assets | Open 24–28 HKD, intraday spike above 30 | Take partial profits on the rise, keep some for bottoming

Most likely first-day closing range: 19–22 HKD

This range reflects a 70% upward revision from the initial implied valuation of 11.735 HKD, considering fundamentals have improved, yet not overly optimistic compared to Ideal’s PS of 2.2x, leaving room for future growth.

6. Practical Investment Advice (On March 19)
   If opening ≤ 18 HKD:
   → Consider it a mispricing opportunity, build or add to positions, aiming to hold for more than 6 months.

If opening is between 19–23 HKD:
→ Do not chase the high, but also do not rush to sell.
Observe trading volume in the first 30 minutes:

• If turnover >5% and price stabilizes, indicating genuine buying interest, hold;
• If it surges above 25+ HKD with declining volume, consider halving the position to lock in profits.

If opening ≥ 25 HKD (especially ≥28 HKD):
→ Strongly recommend reducing holdings because:

• Corresponds to 2025 PS >2.5x, exceeding ideal levels;
• No new capital support, and no catalysts for further rise until Q1 delivery data in April.

Final Reminder:
Lantu’s true value lies not in the first-day listing but in whether it can sustain “profitability + growth” in 2026.
Long-term investors may find 20–22 HKD or below as reasonable entry points;
Arbitrage-focused investors (such as former Dongfeng shareholders) may view above 25 HKD as an excess profit realization window.

Always make decisions based on your own cost basis, risk appetite, and position management.