Breaking News: The Supreme Court just ruled that Trump's tariffs are illegal!

So what happens next?
1️⃣ Money Might Be Reimbursed
The tariffs imposed under this law could potentially be refunded to importers, totaling over $175 billion. University of Pennsylvania Wharton estimates it to be around $175-179 billion—if this money is actually refunded, the Treasury will face a big hit.
2️⃣ But Refunds Won't Be Quick
The International Trade Court has already handled over 1,000 cases. Fully sorting this out could take a year or two. Trump himself previously said that if refunds happen, "it will be a mess."
3️⃣ White House Has a Plan B
Treasury Secretary Yellen has already announced: within 24 hours, they will switch to a different legal basis to continue imposing tariffs. Most likely, it will be Section 301 or Section 122 of the Trade Act—just a different guise, but the fight continues.
4️⃣ But New Measures Have Limitations
Section 122 has a major flaw: the maximum tariff rate is 15%, and it can only be applied for 150 days. As for Section 301, it requires investigations into individual countries. Returning to the previous 10%-50% levels won't happen overnight.
5️⃣ Markets Will Need to Recalculate
If the new tariffs are not implemented, the actual U.S. tariff rate could drop from around 20% to 9%. Of course, 9% is still much higher than the 2% before Trump’s second term, but compared to now, it’s a huge difference.
6️⃣ Real Impact on Ordinary People
The Tax Policy Center estimates that if these tariffs are truly canceled, American households could save about $1,200 per year by 2026. A Federal Reserve study also shows that 90% of the costs of these tariffs are ultimately borne by American consumers.
7️⃣ Don't Forget About Deposits
There are also billions of dollars in customs deposits and guarantee payments that will need to be refunded. The upcoming quarterly reports from insurance companies are expected to be quite lively.
In Conclusion
Tariffs are dead, but the trade war is not over.