The box office for the 2026 Spring Festival is indeed quite disappointing.

Today is the fourth day of the Lunar New Year. As of 1:35 PM, the box office revenue for the Spring Festival period has reached 3.316 billion yuan. The holiday has already passed the halfway mark, with a total of seven days, just over half.

Halfway through, surpassing 3.3 billion yuan is quite evident that the performance is not very ideal, just as Xianxian Finance predicted before the holiday—that this year’s Spring Festival box office would be difficult to shine.

So, what level can the final box office for this year’s Spring Festival period reach?

Based on the usual pattern of “high at the beginning and low at the end,” surpassing 6 billion yuan in total box office in 2026 would already be quite good. But what level is roughly 6 billion yuan?

In 2018, the Spring Festival box office was 5.77 billion yuan; in 2019, 5.904 billion yuan; in 2021, 7.843 billion yuan; in 2022, 6.039 billion yuan; in 2023, 6.765 billion yuan; in 2024, 8.016 billion yuan; and in 2025, 9.514 billion yuan.

The reason why the 2020 Spring Festival box office isn’t listed is mainly due to the significant impact of the pandemic. 2025’s figure is a ceiling, and it is expected that it will be difficult to break this record in the coming years.

Setting aside 2020, during and after the pandemic, the total box office for the Spring Festival period has never fallen below 6 billion yuan. It’s worth noting that the total box office for 2026 could potentially fall below 6 billion yuan, which would likely be the worst Spring Festival performance since 2021.

Some might ask, what is the core reason behind this issue?

The high box office base in 2025 and intense competition have set the stage for weaker performance in 2026.

A high base prevents major film companies from continuing to pursue breaking records this year, as doing so would be unprofitable.

Overly fierce competition led to some heavily invested films in 2025 facing setbacks. Essentially, a few top-tier films were too strong, overshadowing others. If these films had been released in other periods, they might not have caused such significant losses.

In other words, part of the reason for the weak 2026 Spring Festival is that leading companies are reluctant to continue competing during this period, and mid-tier film companies, still healing from previous setbacks, are far from regaining strength.

This results in a lack of top-tier films this year, and the “many strong contenders vying for dominance” scenario from previous years is no longer present. For this Spring Festival, only “Flying Past Life 3” is expected to surpass 4 billion yuan in box office, which is actually above expectations, as it significantly outperformed “Flying Past Life 2.”

The reason “Flying Past Life 3” exceeded expectations is mainly due to insufficient competition.

Additionally, “Silent Chilling” underperformed significantly, with its final box office expected to be only in the tens of millions. The second “seed” film, “The Dagger: Wind Rising in the Desert,” despite starting to gain good reviews, is unlikely to salvage the overall weak market this year.

2026’s Spring Festival may be a crucial turning point.

From an industry perspective, analyzing the mainland box office market during the pandemic, this year marks the seventh year. Although the pandemic has long passed, its impact on the industry remains profound.

During the pandemic, major studios were concerned about disruptions, so blockbuster films were mainly released during key periods. The Spring Festival is a major event for two reasons: one, the short duration means less pandemic impact; two, the overall box office during this period is still substantial, allowing quality films to earn well.

Longer periods, like summer, are often overlooked. Of course, 2023 was an exception, as it was a “de-stocking” year after the pandemic.

Even after several years post-pandemic, this scheduling habit persists. 2025 is a typical example: it had many top films, some earning big, others losing heavily. However, during the summer, there was a “lack of quality content,” with supply unable to meet demand.

While the 2026 Spring Festival seems to be cooling off, compared to pre-pandemic levels, it’s not too bad. If major studios begin to pay more attention to other periods, especially summer, the overall annual box office outlook remains optimistic.

In summary, the overall box office performance of the 2026 Spring Festival is relatively weak, which was within Xianxian Finance’s expectations. Whether the year can achieve good results depends on the supply of quality films and the effectiveness of policies stimulating consumption.