Huatai Securities: Under the new standard for electric meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth by 2026

Huatai Securities Research Report states that on February 6th, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of electricity meter bidding for 2025) was publicly tendered, with a clear price limit. The prices generally increased by over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025, marking a rebound after previous declines. Under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price growth in 2026, driving a recovery in corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are likely to gain higher market shares in the early stages of the new standard implementation.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: Price Rebound in New Standard Electricity Meter Re-tender

Key Points

On February 6th, the State Grid’s 2026 marketing project measurement equipment special (the third batch of electricity meter bidding for 2025) was publicly tendered, with a clear price cap. Prices increased by over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025, marking a rebound after previous declines. We are optimistic that under the new standard for electricity meters, the industry will see both volume and price growth in 2026, supporting a recovery in corporate profitability. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to secure higher market shares early in the rollout of the new standard.

Prices for the new standard electricity meters have stopped falling and are rebounding. The bid prices in the re-tender batch are expected to increase by at least 20%+

In the third batch of 2025, electricity meters were fully procured under the new standard for the first time. However, due to generally high bid prices, the project was ultimately unsuccessful, with opening prices for A/B/C/D grade and high-end smart meters at 213/505/428/611/3579 yuan respectively, representing increases of 55%/46%/37%/111%/53% compared to the second batch of 2025. The re-tender set clear price limits for different parameter standards: typical cap prices are 170/435/380/570/3900 yuan for A/B/C/D grade and high-end smart meters. These limits generally represent a 20%+ increase over the second batch of 2025, marking a rebound after previous declines.

Changes in Price Scoring Standards May Continue Price Competition Trends

This re-tender adjusted some of the scoring criteria for electricity meters. The bid price range used for baseline price calculation was shifted from [-10%, +5%] in the previous batch to [-15%, +5%] in the second batch of 2025, increasing the impact of very low bids on the effective average price, which may lead to a decrease in the effective average price. The floating coefficient C range was adjusted from -0.5%~0.5% to -1%~0.25%, increasing the likelihood of negative floating coefficients. The penalty for bids exceeding the baseline price by 1% increased from 1 point to 1.5 points, while bids below by 1% decreased from 0.3 to 0.1 points, widening the score gap for bids above and below baseline from 0.7 to 1.4 points. Overall, procurement agencies remain focused on price, and price competition among manufacturers may persist.

New Standard Launch + Re-tender Demand Suggests High Overall Demand in 2026

Reviewing the first to third batches of measurement equipment procurement in 2025, a total of 66.47 million electricity meters (including A/B/C/D grade and high-end smart meters) were tendered. The third batch, with 16.96 million meters, failed, resulting in an actual tender volume of 49.52 million meters for the year, which is relatively low (compared to the estimated replacement cycle of 8-10 years for electricity meters, with peak demand in 2015). We believe: 1) As standardized products, actual tender volumes in 2025 were low, so there is strong replenishment demand in 2026; 2) Historically, after new standards are introduced, the first batch often involves small trial tenders, but annual demand tends to grow rapidly with the rollout of the new standard. Therefore, we expect overall demand in 2026 to remain high.

Optimistic about Volume and Price Growth Under the New Standard in 2026

We expect the prices in this re-tender of new standard electricity meters to rebound by over 20% compared to the second batch of 2025. With the new standard meters beginning to be procured on a large scale, overall demand in 2026 is likely to be high. Leading companies with technological advantages are expected to gain higher market shares early in the implementation of the new standard.

Risk Warning: Electricity grid investment may fall short of expectations; industry competition may intensify.

(Source: People’s Financial News)