Assessing International Petroleum (TSX:IPCO) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Returns

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 11:09 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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Why International Petroleum is on investors’ radar

International Petroleum (TSX:IPCO) has caught investor attention after a recent share price move, with the stock showing double digit total returns over the past year and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for International Petroleum.

At a share price of CA$29.88, International Petroleum has seen a 20.87% 1 month share price return and a 58.18% 1 year total shareholder return, with a 3 year total shareholder return above 100% indicating strong momentum rather than a recent spike.

If this kind of move in an oil producer has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our 21 elite gold producer stocks as another resource focused on commodity driven opportunities.

With International Petroleum trading at CA$29.88, well above the average analyst price target yet screening as materially below some intrinsic estimates, investors may ask whether this momentum is overextended or whether the market is still underpricing future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Overvalued

With International Petroleum at CA$29.88 versus a narrative fair value of CA$26.45, the current price sits above what this widely followed model supports, putting the spotlight on its core assumptions.

The imminent completion and ramp-up of Blackrod Phase 1 is expected to significantly increase long-life, low-cost production, materially improving operating cash flow and free cash flow from late 2026 onwards, supporting future revenue and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue curve, margin profile, and future earnings multiple are baked into that CA$26.45 fair value? The narrative leans on aggressive compounding, rising profitability, and a tighter valuation anchor that needs everything from Blackrod to capital allocation to line up almost perfectly. Want to see how those moving parts fit together in the full model?

Result: Fair Value of CA$26.45 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that story relies heavily on Blackrod Phase 1 going to plan and on free cash flow turning as expected, with any delay or cost overrun representing a clear risk.

Find out about the key risks to this International Petroleum narrative.

Another Take: Cash Flows Tell a Different Story

So far, the analyst narrative and price targets point to International Petroleum looking 13% overvalued at CA$29.88. Yet our DCF model presents a different view. It shows a future cash flow value of CA$88.73 per share, which indicates that the current price may be trading at a steep discount. Which lens do you rely on more: sentiment-driven targets or cash flow analysis?

Story Continues  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

IPCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out International Petroleum for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 6 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own International Petroleum Narrative

If the story so far does not quite match your own view, or you prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your International Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If International Petroleum has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover other opportunities that might suit your approach.

Spot potential value candidates early by scanning our 6 high quality undervalued stocks, which combines quality fundamentals with pricing that may appeal to disciplined investors.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include IPCO.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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