🔍 Life Prosperity Depends on Kondratiev Waves: Kondratiev Cycles and Wealth Insights for 2026

1. The Core Logic of Kondratiev Cycles

- Theoretical Foundation: Proposed by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev, it suggests that the global economy and financial markets fluctuate in 50-60 year cycles, divided into four stages: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery.

- Core Drivers: Iteration and diffusion of technological revolutions, with each Kondratiev wave led by a new technological cluster (such as the steam engine, electricity, information technology, AI, and new energy).

- Action Principles:

- C Class (Difficult Period): Economic hardship and asset prices are low, making it an ideal time to buy and hold stocks, commodities, and other assets.

- B Class (Prosperity Period): Economic boom and high asset prices, suitable for selling assets to realize gains.

- A Class (Panic Period): Economic panic, best for risk aversion or waiting for the next cycle.

2. Positioning in 2026

The chart clearly marks 2026 as a B Class (Prosperity Period), which means:

- According to this cycle projection, 2026 is a year of economic prosperity and high asset prices, ideal for selling stocks and various assets to realize gains.

- This differs from the views of scholars like Zhou Jintao: mainstream opinion considers 2026 to be at the end of the depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev wave (information technology), about to enter the recovery phase of the sixth wave (AI, new energy), making it a key point for deploying core assets in the new cycle.

3. Practical Recommendations for 2026

Based on cycle theory and current market conditions, consider the following directions:

- Core Allocation: Focus on the core driving sectors of the sixth Kondratiev wave, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, energy storage, new energy, and biotechnology. Position early in the recovery phase to wait for prosperity to realize gains.

- Asset Allocation: Use a "dumbbell strategy," with core holdings in safe-haven assets like gold to hedge risks, and satellite holdings in technology growth sectors.

- Risk Reminder: Kondratiev cycles are long-term theories; short-term markets are heavily influenced by policies, liquidity, and other factors. Investment decisions should not rely solely on cycle predictions.