【$TON Signal】Hold Cash | Weak Rebound in Downtrend

$TON Continues to decline after breaking below EMA20, currently in a weak consolidation within the downtrend channel. Although there is a slight rebound, buying strength is weak, and the deep imbalance indicates heavy selling pressure above.

🎯 Direction: Hold Cash

Market Analysis: The 4H chart shows consecutive bearish candles, with the price suppressed below EMA20 (1.3436). The latest candlestick's buy/sell ratio is only slightly favoring buyers at 0.54, but trading volume is shrinking, indicating a rebound with no volume.

Hardcore Logic: Key data points to a bearish pattern. 1) Funding rate at -0.0096%, negative but open interest (OI) remains stable, indicating not a short squeeze but lack of bullish confidence. 2) Deep imbalance at 29.45%, with ask orders far thinner than bid orders, showing clear overhead selling pressure. 3) RSI at 34.98 is in the weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for further decline.

Current price is at 1.2996, closely aligned with the order book sell wall (only 172.1 at 1.2996). Weak rebound unable to break through 1.3037 (recent minor high) is considered a sign of weakness. There is no clear support below, with the previous low at 1.2587 being a key liquidity zone.

Trading Plan: Wait for a clear signal. To go long, conditions must be met: 1) Price volume increases and stabilizes above EMA20. 2) OI trend turns upward, and funding rate turns positive. 3) Deep buy orders significantly increase. Otherwise, any rebound to 1.32-1.33 (EMA20 and previous oscillation lower boundary) encountering resistance is a potential shorting opportunity, but currently lacks high-probability right-side entry points.

Trade here 👇 $TON

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