#我在Gate广场过新年 BTC/ETH Double Explosion Market Analysis: Weak Rebound Hides Hidden Risks, Second Bottoming Risks Maxed Out

As of February 10, 2026, the crypto market remains in a state of turbulence and confusion. BTC and ETH both display the awkward trend of “weak rebound with strong selling pressure”! Coupled with the lingering negative impact of regulatory crackdowns by eight ministries and commissions, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations continue to cool down, retail investors must be extremely cautious when bottom-fishing, avoiding being trapped at high levels or forced to sell at lows!
Core Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC): Slight 1.2% increase over 24 hours appears to signal a halt in decline and a potential rebound, with intra-day trading range locked between $66,500 and $68,200. Rebound volume remains sluggish, with selling pressure like a mountain pressing down from above. In the short term, it’s highly likely to “grind sideways” between $65,000 and $70,000, with the risk of a second dip never fully eliminated!
Ethereum (ETH): Slight 1.8% increase over 24 hours, below market expectations. Daily fluctuation range is $2,000-$2,150, with critical support levels becoming increasingly precarious. Bottom-fishing requires more caution than with Bitcoin; avoid entering blindly!
Core Logic Behind Market Fluctuations (Understand to Avoid Pitfalls and Deadly Mistakes)
Many retail investors are confused: Why emphasize full risk even when the trend shows slight gains? The core reasons are threefold. By analyzing recent regulatory developments and real market data, understanding these points can help you operate more wisely and avoid getting deeply trapped!
1. Macro + Regulatory Double Pressure (Most Critical, Must Read): The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectation for March has cooled to 35%. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.12%, directly suppressing valuations of all high-risk assets, with cryptocurrencies being the most affected. More alarmingly, on February 6, eight ministries and commissions jointly issued a statement explicitly declaring virtual currency-related activities as illegal financial activities, severely restricting speculative space and showing clear signs of capital fleeing for safety. Coupled with recent sharp fluctuations in the US crypto index, which saw a single-day drop of 13.78% on February 5, market panic remains unabsorbed.
2. Institutional + Whale Exit Continues (No Funds, No Rebound): The US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to experience net outflows, with large-scale institutional capital retreating, leading to tightening market liquidity. ETH’s performance is even worse; not only are institutional holdings decreasing, but on-chain whales and core development team members are also reducing their holdings. Even if some of these reductions are personal asset adjustments, they severely undermine market confidence—without large funds supporting the market, any rebound is unlikely to be sustainable, making it a fleeting moment.
3. Technical + Ecosystem Weakness (Downward Trend, Hard to Reverse): Both BTC and ETH are under pressure below the middle Bollinger Band. K-line charts repeatedly rally and fall back, with heavy overhead resistance from trapped positions. Without volume, rebounds cannot break through strong resistance levels; RSI remains neutral with obvious oscillation, showing no clear signs of stabilization. Additionally, on-chain activity for ETH continues to decline, DeFi lock-up volumes are decreasing, and ecosystem enthusiasm is cooling, all of which make it impossible to support a significant rebound. Reminder: geopolitical risk aversion may provide slight support, but leverage positions are still being cleared. Large sell-offs or sudden macro or regulatory news could trigger rapid price declines. Retail investors should avoid blindly bottom-fishing or holding onto false hopes!

Technical Brief Analysis✅
BTC Short-term Range: $65,000-$70,000, Key Resistance: $69,800-$70,200, Core Support: $65,000 (break below triggers further decline);
✅ ETH Short-term Range: $2,000-$2,200, Key Resistance: $2,200, Core Support: $2,000 (loss of support could lead to around $1,900);
✅ Commonality for Both Coins: Bollinger Bands are widening, short-term downward momentum is strong, rebound volume is severely lacking, no clear trend, current main theme is oscillating and grinding sideways.

💡 Retail Exclusive Trading Guide
Recent market tolerance is very low; even small mistakes can lead to being trapped. Remember these 3 points to avoid deep losses and protect your principal, especially for beginners—must read!
1. Position Management (Top Priority): Use small positions for trial trades; single trade size should never exceed 10%. Do not try to heavily buy the dip to rebound—under current conditions, heavy buying risks deep trapping and losses.
2. Trading Rhythm (Focus on Stability): When BTC rebounds to $69,800-$70,200 resistance zone, reduce positions gradually and take profits; if it falls back to $65,000-$66,000 support zone, try small positions to re-enter. For ETH, when it rebounds to $2,180-$2,200, decisively reduce positions; if it falls back to $2,000-$2,050, consider small entries. Avoid chasing high, heavy positions, or early re-entries.
3. Stop-Loss Must Be Set (Bottom Line): Set BTC stop-loss at $64,500, ETH at $1,980. Once the price breaks below, exit immediately—don’t hold onto false hopes. Stop-loss is the lifeline; sticking to it preserves your capital for future trades.
🔮 Short-term Trend Forecast
Whether BTC or ETH, the core short-term trend is “oscillating correction.” Strong directional moves are unlikely. Don’t be fooled by minor rebounds into thinking a reversal is happening!
✅ Optimistic Scenario (Lower Probability): If BTC can hold above $68,000 and ETH above $2,150, they may attempt to test $70,000-$72,000 and $2,200-$2,250 respectively. However, rebound heights are limited, so don’t expect too much.
✅ Pessimistic Scenario (Higher Probability): If BTC drops below $65,000 and ETH below $2,000, it will likely trigger a second bottoming. BTC could fall to $63,000-$64,000, and ETH might dip to $1,900-$1,950. Risk management should be prepared in advance.