Knowledge is the beginning of action; action is the completion of knowledge.

From a spatial perspective, knowledge and action are two rails that cannot be separated. From a temporal perspective, knowledge is the beginning of action; action is the completion of knowledge. The unity of knowledge and action is the start and end of a single matter.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Continuing from the previous article, Bitcoin continues to decline. Based on the resistance around 90,000 mentioned earlier, the market was blocked and retreated at around 90,500. It has fallen about 15,000 USD over five consecutive days, which also coincides with the point for medium- to long-term testing of positions emphasized in previous articles (around 74,000, entering at 75,000-76,000). If you followed the article’s guidance and traded accordingly, you can hold and observe, but also adjust your positions as needed. I can't go into detailed operational methods here, as individual situations vary. The overall approach of the serialized articles hasn't deviated much, including trend judgments and viewpoints, and internal follow-ups, such as the earlier shorts at around 97,000 and near 90,000, all follow the trend (not shown here because some apps can't display it). Different positions and plans vary; both short-term and long-term trend participation are included. Although the article updates slowly, I discuss the main direction and smaller timeframes, covering bullish and bearish views. Sometimes the explanations are simple, sometimes more detailed. I hope this helps friends who follow Gege.

The Bitcoin market has reached this stage. Today’s article will discuss the bear bottom. Previously, I made some predictions about key levels, now revisiting them with the cycle in mind. First, a brief discussion of the current price: around 75,000, the market has a consensus that this is a bottoming area, close to the cost basis of micro-strategies. This is the low point from April 2025. After that bottoming wave, the market entered the latter half of the bull market, driven by continuous buying from institutions, making it a worthwhile position to consider. As mentioned earlier, you can hold and observe. The prices of ETF giants are definitely lower than current levels, so the current price is not the bear bottom, just a key support zone in this phase.

We can estimate the retracement depths of historical bull-to-bear cycles: around 2011, a 94% retracement (which can be ignored as it was early, with poor liquidity and limited participants); around 2013, an 87% retracement; around 2017, an 84% retracement; around 2021, a 77% retracement; and in 2025, the retracement? Based on the cycle retracement strength, it is becoming shallower because market consensus is stronger, with institutional participation, mining costs after halving, and other factors. Currently, based on the historical cycle retracement becoming shallower, if this retracement hits 70%, the price would be around 38,000; if 60%, around 50,500. Gege’s view is slightly more optimistic than these figures, sticking to the previous estimates of around 63,000 and 52,000.

Looking at the short-term chart, I’ve used this chart for a long time. The purple area at the bottom is the medium- to long-term testing zone. Watch the resistance around 83,000-85,000. If it cannot break through, it’s a signal to close long positions and switch to a counter-trend. The next period involves observing whether the resistance above and the purple support zone below are effectively broken or just false breaks, to determine specific operations. That’s all for today. The above analysis is purely an estimate for reference!

These suggestions are for reference only. Enter the market with proper risk control, and manage profit and stop-loss levels yourself. For specific strategies, consult during live trading.

Alright, friends, that’s all for today. See you next time. Wishing everyone better and better performance, and a bright and smooth future in the crypto world! More real-time advice will be sent internally. That’s all for today’s brief update. For more real-time suggestions from Bitcoin Auntie, contact Gege.

Written by / Trader Gege, a friend willing to help you rise again #BTC #ETH