In this ever-changing market, success is not about a momentary impulsive all-in, but about patience, cognition, and risk control. Slow is fast, less is more, avoid blindly following the trend, do not obsess over holdings, and stick to your trading rules. This is more sustainable than chasing short-term profits. In the last trading week of January, the precious metals and virtual currency markets experienced extreme fluctuations, akin to meme stocks with violent swings. Gold and silver once again broke historical highs, but then both faced a cliff-like reversal. Virtual currencies also fell below their near nine-month levels, with Bitcoin breaking below 76,000 and Ethereum dropping below 2,300. Bulls are retreating step by step. The bearish outlook is in line with expectations, and the weekend continued to extend the bearish trend due to the government shutdown.

The four-hour structure of Bitcoin shows a clear downward trend, with previous highs gradually moving lower, and prices continuously trading below the moving averages. This round of decline from above 84,000 USD broke out with increased volume, directly dropping to around 75,500 USD. Although there are long lower shadows indicating some support below, the subsequent rebound candlesticks are small and lack continuity, more reflecting technical correction after a decline rather than a trend reversal. Overall, the four-hour rhythm remains dominated by bears, characterized by weak rebounds and rapid declines. On the one-hour chart, recent movements are in a low-range sideways consolidation with slight rebounds, with prices oscillating above 78,000 USD. However, the rebounds are always suppressed by downward moving averages and have not broken out with volume. The market shows a pattern of “gradual rise followed by rapid resistance”—prices slightly rise but are pushed back by bears, a typical bear consolidation pattern. As long as there is no strong volume surge with a long bullish candle, the current one-hour rebound can only be seen as a corrective move.

Overall, Bitcoin is still in the technical correction stage within a downtrend, with the overall direction remaining bearish. While there is some support below, its strength is limited; on the upside, there is dense resistance, and the rebound space is clearly constrained. It is recommended to maintain a trend-following short position strategy and avoid chasing longs.

Trading suggestions:

Short around 79,500 for Bitcoin, target 76,000
Short around 2,500 for Ethereum, target 2,200