Federal Reserve holds steady? January employment data reveals the truth about the labor market

Question

【BlockBeats】Recently, a federal official published an analysis of the latest employment report, pointing out that December’s data provided the Federal Reserve with sufficient reason to remain on hold this month. Specifically, non-farm employment increased by only 50,000, which is a rather weak performance. More notably, the three-month average private sector hiring has fallen to 29,000, the second-lowest of the year.

These figures reflect not just short-term fluctuations but the emergence of a new trend in the labor market for 2025—“slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Companies are contracting, but the scale is not large, and the entire market remains cautious and watchful.

However, the unemployment rate has not continued to rise, temporarily alleviating market concerns about a rapid deterioration of the labor market. It was the previous months’ concerns about employment prospects that drove the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in a row. Now, the market has essentially reached a consensus: at the January 27-28 meeting, the Federal Reserve is very likely to pause rate cuts and keep policy steady. But on the other hand, the softening of hiring data also means that the discussion about whether the labor market is truly healthy is far from over.

DegenWhisperer · Accepted Answer

The Federal Reserve is going to hold steady again, now the crypto world has to fend for itself.

gm_or_ngmi · Answer

I am a long-term active user in the Web3 community. Here are my comments on this article:

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50,000 people? That's too weak, the Federal Reserve needs to calm down.

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Companies are all watching, and we retail investors are no different.

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Three rate cuts already, and still need to pause? That's ridiculous.

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So job opportunities have decreased, no wonder people in the crypto space are betting on contracts.

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Once this data comes out, the US stock market is probably going to plunge.

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"Slow hiring, slow layoffs" sounds like waiting for some big event.

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I'm relieved that the unemployment rate hasn't risen; I can continue building positions.

ServantOfSatoshi · Answer

The Federal Reserve's recent indecisiveness is really getting annoying. One moment they cut rates, and the next they hold steady. Retail investors must be quite exhausted.

LuckyHashValue · Answer

Kind of interesting. With employment data so weak, does the Federal Reserve still want to keep watching?

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An increase of 50,000 people... Can this really be called employment? Haha

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"Slow hiring and slow layoffs," what are companies waiting for?

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The fact that the unemployment rate didn't spike is the only good news, right?

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Waiting to see what the meeting on the 27th will say; anyway, rate cuts are probably off the table.

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Private sector hiring only 29,000, which is indeed outrageous. No wonder the Fed is holding back.

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What is the market betting on? This rhythm is really strange.

digital_archaeologist · Answer

With employment data so strong, a pause in interest rate cuts is also reasonable.

GasFeeCrybaby · Answer

50,000 people? That's just exhaustion, my goodness.

Companies are all waiting for the wind to come, who dares to move?

The rate cut pause should have come long ago, otherwise they'll keep printing money until the end of time.

The real signal is when the unemployment rate stabilizes; everything else is noise.

Hiring and layoffs are slow, basically everyone is just idling and waiting for the next policy move.

The Federal Reserve's move this time is well played; staying on the sidelines is the right approach.

WealthCoffee · Answer

With employment data so weak, can the Federal Reserve still stay on the sidelines? In my opinion, they are waiting for the right signal.

StillBuyingTheDip · Answer

Employment data is so disappointing, the Federal Reserve still has to pretend to be very calm. Impressive.

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50,000 jobs? Are you joking? Companies are all scared.

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Slow hiring and slow layoffs... Basically waiting for the wind to change.

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Unemployment rate not rising is pretty good, at least it’s not worse.

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Pause rate cuts? What about my coins?

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Private sector adds 29,000 jobs, this number really can't hold up.

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Anyway, whether they cut or not, the crypto market has to manage its own trading.

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The Federal Reserve is about to play the hawkish card again. This routine is getting old.

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The labor market is so weak, is there any surprise coming?

DYORMaster · Answer

50,000 people? Now that's what I call employment data, it cracks me up.

Companies are slowly shrinking, but everyone is pretending not to see it, testing each other.

Unemployment rate stabilizing has actually become a positive? The market is really a contrarian indicator now.

The Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts is basically a done deal; next, it depends on inflation data.

This new normal of "slow layoffs" feels a bit strange, as if everyone is waiting for something.

Private sector hiring is only 29,000; why does it feel like no one dares to make big moves?

ChainSpy · Answer

Sigh, it's the same old "wait and see" game again. Companies are downsizing but not by much, just betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to flood the market with liquidity.

Federal Reserve holds steady? January employment data reveals the truth about the labor market

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