The job market has indeed been under pressure recently, especially on the hiring side. But there's a detail worth noting—according to NFIB data, the number of job openings has stabilized, with recent declines mainly concentrated in the public sector.

There is also a related issue to pay attention to: the impact of birth/death rate assumptions in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) JOLTS data. These model assumptions may obscure the true state of labor market flows. From the overall trend, private sector hiring has shown more resilience than expected, but signals of contraction in the public sector are quite clear.

For the market, this divergent employment pattern may indicate a shift in the economic cycle. When the public sector begins to shrink, it often means fiscal policy adjustments are already underway. Such macro signals should not be ignored in on-chain asset allocation.