At the start of 2026, Ethereum once again surpassed $3000, sparking intense market discussions. Is this the golden moment for bottoming out, or a trap set by the bears to lure in buyers? This question deserves a thorough analysis.

ETH just surged to $3185, and public opinion is divided into two camps: one shouting that the bull market has begun, and the other warning of a bull trap. Having been involved in the crypto market for many years, I understand the tricks of chasing risk assets—simply looking at price movements is not enough. To truly understand this wave of market behavior, we need to analyze from three perspectives: macro liquidity, fundamentals, and capital flows.

My core judgment is: there is short-term adjustment pressure, but it is more likely that Ethereum will hold steady above the $3000 level. Why do I say that? Let me explain in detail.

**New signals from liquidity shifting and releasing**

The Federal Reserve hinted in December 2025 that it might initiate three rate cuts in 2026, and this policy signal has now become the market’s guiding beacon. As the world enters a cycle of rate cuts, the valuation center of risk assets has become elevated, and high-risk, high-reward cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are the most directly benefited from this liquidity easing expectation.

Looking at the data makes it clear: since the beginning of the year, the total global cryptocurrency market cap has broken through $2.5 trillion, a 40% increase compared to the lows of 2025. This is no coincidence but a result of actual liquidity support. Historical patterns are evident: every rate cut cycle is accompanied by a weakening dollar, and funds naturally flow from defensive assets to high-risk, offensive assets. The 2020 Federal Reserve rate cut to zero and the subsequent flood of liquidity marked the start of a major bull run for Bitcoin, which is a clear example.