The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shown a MACD golden cross on the monthly chart.

Sounds like a short-term signal? Wrong. This is a turning point at the cycle level.

The last time I saw this kind of structure was in 2019. The key is that the market won't surge dramatically overnight or take off the very next day. The direction of liquidity first changes, and risk assets start to reprice gradually afterward. This is the rhythm.

Many people are now stuck in an awkward position—saying "there's no QE" with their mouths, but their eyes are fixed on the balance sheet climbing all the way up.

We need to clarify what we mean.

Currently, it's definitely not official QE. That's undisputed. But the issue has never been about the "name," but about the "effect."

If it expands the balance sheet like QE,
if it releases marginal liquidity like QE,
if it changes the risk appetite of capital like QE,

then for the market, it is already the first half of QE.

Zoom out on the chart again. What’s truly worth noting isn’t the technical pattern of the golden cross itself, but that the downtrend has been broken. From long-term contraction to sideways consolidation, and then to a marginal shift—this is the universal logic before all major market moves.

Why are so many people skeptical now? Because they only remember "QE after the rise," but forget a fundamental fact: the market always moves ahead of policy.

By the time the official documents explicitly mention QE, prices are already far above the floor.

So, is this a case of history rhyming again, or just copying the same pattern?

From a cycle perspective, the answer is quite realistic. History doesn’t innovate; it only copies the underlying logic of human nature. When liquidity turns around, risk assets are never absent. Sometimes they arrive early, sometimes late.