#以太坊大户持仓变化 Is the same force at play? The truth behind Bitcoin's surge to $250,000 in 2026

In recent days, the crypto world has been bombarded with information, with two news items almost simultaneously igniting discussions: Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee publicly stated on CNBC that—Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 in 2026; meanwhile, major institutions like Gemini and Crypto.com have poured $21 million into a Trump-affiliated PAC. Coincidence? No, there is a deeper logic behind it.

A closer look at this chain reveals the answer. Tom Lee’s prediction boils down to five words: U.S. government support. And that $21 million political donation aligns perfectly with the timeline. The crypto industry is now targeting key candidates in the 2026 election with lobbying efforts, with the core demand being clear—regulatory frameworks need to be clarified. Historical data shows a significant positive correlation between U.S. election cycles and BTC price cycles.

What are the three main factors supporting the rise in 2026?

**Policy**: If Trump is elected, it’s highly likely he will introduce a “Cryptocurrency Presidential Executive Order,” expanding favorable policies. **Funding**: The inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has already surpassed that of gold ETFs by ten times during the same period. **Technology**: 2026 coincides with the next halving cycle, when supply and demand are at their tightest—this is a cycle embedded in the blockchain.

But don’t be blindly optimistic. Policy dividends may come with stricter KYC and trading surveillance. Markets dominated by institutions could further marginalize retail investors. Moreover, the target of $250,000 assumes the U.S. economy doesn’t collapse.

How should you adjust your stance now? Strengthen your BTC-centric mindset and avoid frequent swing trading. Focus more on regulated platforms like custodial and compliant trading services. Keep 30% of your assets in cash to prepare for potential extreme volatility during the election period. $BTC $ETH

Finally, here’s a question for you: When BTC truly hits $250,000 in 2026, what do you think will be the most core driving force—Fed rate cuts, Congress passing crypto legislation, large-scale allocations by sovereign funds, or the widespread adoption of breakthroughs like Layer3? Share your answer in the comments and let time reveal who saw it clearly.