2026-01-03 08:22:47

Has the atmosphere changed since this halving cycle arrived? In the past, it was all about shouting "push to $300,000, $500,000," but now analysts are starting to calm down. The logic behind Bitcoin's rise has long shifted from mindless fanaticism to genuine fundamental analysis.

Some time ago, Standard Chartered directly cut their 2026 Bitcoin target price from $300,000 to $150,000, with a very sobering reason — institutional funds coming through compliant products haven't reached the scale they previously imagined. Bernstein also expressed that $150,000 by the end of 2026 seems more realistic, and only by the end of 2027 might it reach $200,000. Interestingly, these institutions all emphasize the same phenomenon: Bitcoin is gradually breaking out of the past "four-year cycle of wild swings," increasingly resembling stable assets like digital gold.

However, opinions are definitely not static. The bullish Fundstrat still maintains a target of $200,000 to $250,000, while the more conservative ones believe $110,000 to $135,000 is a more reliable range. But there's a clear change here — whether bullish or bearish, no one is relying on hype and emotion to set the rhythm anymore. All predictions now have to be backed by hard indicators like capital flows and data on compliant products. This is a true sign of market maturity.

That said, rationality doesn't mean there’s no risk. Some analysts explicitly point out that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a deep retracement, even dropping to the $40,000–$70,000 range. Volatility is inherent to this track, and it can never be changed. While institutional funds can support the bottom during downturns, that definitely doesn't mean you can relax and be fully on the defensive.

Ultimately, from shouting slogans to pragmatic analysis, the market is truly maturing. After the emotional tide recedes, fundamentals and technicals will be the decisive forces. The 2026 Bitcoin rally hasn't officially started yet, and all we can do is stay clear-headed amid the fluctuations and keep a cautious eye in optimistic times.

BTC1.51%

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 8h ago

Cut to 150,000? What about those who boasted about 300,000 before? Now they are all silent, haha. Institutional funds are not as much as imagined, this is the truly heartbreaking part. By the way, will 4-7万 really come? Feels a bit uncertain. Anyway, I just buy and don't look anymore. Being sober is nonsense, sleeping is the most important. From calling orders to data speaking, it has indeed changed, but those who make money are still those people.

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ProposalManiac

· 18h ago

Institutional funds didn't meet expectations, which is indeed disappointing. Frankly, it's still a matter of the efficiency of compliance channels' governance. --- Switching from emotion-driven to data-driven analysis—that's the market mechanism at work. --- The 40,000-70,000 retracement plan should be taken seriously. Historically, every time people thought it was impossible, what happened? --- The idea of digital gold sounds comfortable, but its volatility can't be changed. That's the limitation of the incentive mechanism. --- Target prices cut from 300,000 to 150,000. Rather than calling it a failure, it's better to say that governance participants have updated their consensus basis. --- Both bullish and bearish views should be supported by solid data. This marks the shift of the game balance toward rationality. --- The question is, how long can institutional funds support the bottom? Once a certain threshold is triggered, the defense line will still break. --- To break out of the four-year cycle, what mechanism design is needed? Relying solely on self-awareness is definitely not enough. --- This market transition from order calls to fundamental analysis is essentially a process of power shifting from retail investors to institutions. --- Stay sober, but maintaining clarity during volatility and in actual operations are two different things.

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DataOnlooker

· 20h ago

Standard Chartered cut from 300,000 to 150,000. This move indeed hurts, but to be fair, institutional funds didn't meet expectations, which is also quite disappointing. Getting truly calm and speaking with data is much more reliable than those analysts who talk nonsense. The bottom warning between $40,000 and $70,000 should be remembered; don't be fooled by the current illusion of rationality. Institutional support does not equal stability; you have to experience losses to understand this truth. Bitcoin is becoming more and more like gold; it sounds stable, but its inherent volatility can't be changed. That's the real truth.

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CodeAuditQueen

· 20h ago

Institutional funds didn't meet expectations, just like an overflow check in a smart contract that wasn't properly installed—looks fine on the surface, but in reality, a hidden trap was already set.

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ProveMyZK

· 20h ago

Standard Chartered really cut prices from 300,000 to 150,000, that's incredible. Institutional funds are not as crazy as expected. It seems this round really has to rely on fundamentals; the era of hype is over. --- 15万vs20万, both are guesses anyway, but at least now no one is shouting blindly. That feels pretty good. --- Wait, do you really believe in a 4-7万 retracement possibility? I think this is just a classic scare tactic. --- Institutional support is just support; don't expect it to save you. You need to see clearly yourself. --- From signal calling to data analysis, it has indeed matured, but maturity doesn't mean stability. Volatility is always the essence of this game. --- The scale of compliant products entering the market hasn't increased, no wonder institutions are becoming conservative. The logic is actually quite clear. --- It's still early for 2026. Worrying over whether it's 150,000 or 200,000 now is a bit premature. Better to focus on the current fluctuations first.

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ProtocolRebel

· 20h ago

Institutions say to stay calm, just stay calm, but why aren't they figuring it out themselves? --- As for the Bitmain price cut... if I had known it would turn out like this, I might as well have listened to retail investors' calls. --- The real question is, who can guarantee that 150,000 won't be cut down to 100,000 again? --- From madness to "digital gold," it sounds like institutions are giving themselves an escape route. --- The expected influx of compliant funds hasn't come as hoped, and that's the real painful truth. --- Beautiful words aside, 40,000 to 70,000 can still be smashed down, don't be too optimistic. --- Now, those talking about fundamentals are just paying for their previous hype. --- If volatility can't be fixed, what's the difference between holding coins and sleeping or shorting? --- Support from institutions for 200,000—what arguments do they use? Let's hear them. --- Wait, is the institution's bottom support really reliable, or are they just trying to cut the new retail investors?

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OnchainGossiper

· 20h ago

Standard Chartered's move was really ruthless, cutting directly from 300,000 to 150,000. This wave of institutional funds isn't as aggressive as expected. But to be fair, a truly mature market is like this—no more bragging. Remember the baseline of 40,000 to 70,000; volatility is always the norm. Wait, Fundstrat is still at 200,000 to 250,000. That's a huge gap, isn't it? Ultimately, don't let optimism cloud your judgment. Stay clear-headed.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 20h ago

Standard Chartered's price cut shows that institutions aren't that stupid. When it's rational, you still need to be rational. --- It's all those who shout buy every day that have inflated expectations to the sky. Now that it drops, it hits their feet. --- 150,000 vs 200,000, who cares about the numbers? The key is not to get caught in it. --- Institutional support sounds safe, but I never believe in that. It still needs to fall if it’s going to fall. --- Bitcoin turning into gold? Sounds good, but actually it just means there's no growth potential anymore. --- The possibility of 40,000 to 70,000—can you even imagine? I've already reserved my bullets. --- Talking about fundamentals now is a good thing, but don’t forget, the crypto world has never been about logic. --- Boasting that the tide of scams is over, but new tricks will definitely come again. It’s a cycle. --- Clear-headed? In this market, those who are clear-headed are all losing money. --- Anyway, just waiting. The waves that are coming can’t be avoided.

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