#数字资产动态追踪 The rhythm of Friday's market movement—initial gap up, hitting the top, then plunging—directly shattered the short-term bullish-bearish balance of gold.

From a fundamental perspective, the $12 gap up itself suggests there may be a surprise premium over the weekend (geopolitical issues or liquidity shocks are usually the culprits). But the Asian session didn't provide new upward momentum; chasing higher was just mechanical buying. By the time of the European and American sessions, the problem became clear: the macro story hasn't upgraded at all. The Federal Reserve is still in the "possibly one rate cut in the first half of the year, and to be seen in the second half" tone, with the dollar and US Treasury yields only slightly retreating, showing no signs of a trend collapse. Therefore, there is no sustained buying above $4400 to absorb positions.

What’s more painful is that ETFs have been outflows for two consecutive weeks, and the central bank's gold purchase pace slowed after December, so physical demand can't keep up. As a result, any overbought signals trigger algorithmic profit-taking and sell-offs.

On the technical side, it's even more interesting. The $4402 level? Just the 78.6% retracement of last year's October to December decline, sitting right along the upper band of the weekly Bollinger Bands—double pressure from "space pressure + indicator pressure." The 4-hour RSI shows three consecutive bearish divergences in the overbought zone, with candlesticks forming smaller volume new highs—classic bull trap.

The sharp drop to $92 pushed the price back to the $4310-$4320 range, which is both the neckline of the previous platform and the confluence zone of the daily MA20 and MA50. If early next week the price doesn't recover above $4360, the short-term head-and-shoulders pattern will be confirmed, with a first support at $4220-$4230.

Conversely, if geopolitical risks flare up again or US core PCE drops further, and gold stabilizes above $4360, there’s still a chance for bulls to push toward $4500. But honestly, the upward space is limited, and the $4450-$4480 range hides larger-scale short positions.