#美联储降息政策 After reviewing the latest CPI and easing rate expectations signals, on-chain capital movements are indeed changing. The shift in Hasset's stance indicates that the market is strengthening expectations of a rate cut — moving from "some room" to "ample room," and this progressive phrasing is very important.

If the 1.6% three-month moving average inflation data is adopted by the Federal Reserve, it will directly influence market expectations. I notice that such policy signals usually first react in whale movements — large investors tend to position themselves early.

Key areas to monitor include: first, inflows and outflows of stablecoins, as institutions typically increase risk asset allocations when easing expectations heat up; second, changes in main cryptocurrencies' contract holdings, especially the distribution of leverage ratios and liquidation prices; third, the rhythm of large deposits and withdrawals on exchanges.

Currently, it is still in the expectation stage, and real implementation depends on the Federal Reserve's decision in January. But from a capital perspective, the chips for rate cut trades are gradually accumulating.