Longtime fans know I’ve held on since 2017, riding through the crazy runs from 10K to 60K, and enduring the bottom at 3,800. Today, I saw institutions calling for Bitcoin to reach 150,000 by 2026—neither surprising nor blindly bullish. Let’s talk some real stuff.

First, it’s important to say that institutions adjusting their targets isn’t about being bearish; it’s about realistic implementation. Standard Chartered cut their target from 300,000 to 150,000, mainly because institutional ETF buying isn’t as crazy as imagined, but that’s actually a good thing. Previous expectations were too optimistic; anchoring at 150,000 is rational optimism—both Bernstein and Saylor are betting on this number. Essentially, they’re betting on “Bitcoin breaking free from the four-year cycle.” This isn’t empty talk. Currently, institutional crypto holdings in the US stock market are just over 0.1%. Even if it only reaches 0.5%, that volume alone could push the price to 150,000.

But don’t just look at the big picture and get carried away. Two realities need to be acknowledged. First, volatility hasn’t truly decreased. When Saylor says volatility has dropped, he’s comparing now to the crazy bull run of 2021. If we see a retracement back to 40,000–70,000, can you handle it? After bottoming out at 3,800 in 2019, I saw Bitcoin drop from 10,000 to that level, and back then, more people were calling for a bull run than now. Second, institutional expectations are “bottom-line” rather than “ceiling.” Fundstrat’s call for 200,000 to 250,000 isn’t reckless; as long as the US stock market doesn’t crash and risk appetite for crypto returns, breaking 150,000 is highly probable. But the key is not to get shaken out during retracements.

What’s the next step? I’ll keep it simple with three points.

First, don’t go all-in. Use no more than 30% of your idle funds for allocation, and keep the rest ready for retracements. When prices drop to 40,000–70,000, that’s a money-making opportunity—don’t run out of bullets then.

Second, don’t focus on short-term prices; watch institutional moves. If Grayscale’s ETF holdings see three consecutive weeks of net inflows, or BlackRock starts adding positions, that’s a real signal. Don’t let intraday volatility mess with your mindset.

Third, don’t just hoard Bitcoin. Allocate some small positions in Layer 2 projects with real-world applications, like those we discussed before. When Bitcoin rises, these sector coins tend to be even more elastic.

Finally, a note: I’ve never made money by guessing tops and bottoms. It’s about “holding through rational expectations and running during extreme emotions.” 150,000 in 2026 isn’t the end goal, but you need to survive the volatility along the way.